Washington, DC -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/16/2017 --For eight years, we have been spoon fed a narrative of increasing prosperity. The message has been carefully crafted by the executive branch, seasoned and served by a complicit media. And many of us have all too gladly accepted it, believing the proposition that the "new normal" is now simply "normal." The nonsensical market reacts to bad news by surging up, giving officials and pundits something to point at as "proof" of their claims, despite the fact that fundamentals continue to weaken under massive debt and weak global demand. Money printing and central bank stimulus continues blowing air into this unsustainable bubble, though, and many have become complacent, ignoring the yawning abyss that we're perched right on the edge of.
This same narrative would have us believe that President Trump has inherited a strong economy, an economy on the move up and up to new heights. Trump himself has muddied the waters by pointing at gains in the DOW and issuing executive orders at such dizzying speed that it seems that progress must surely be happening. And it's true that his plans for reigning in regulation, rationalizing tax policy and encouraging the repatriation of American manufacturing seem to offer the promise of growth.
The problem, though, is that the economy is not on the ascendant. Trump is being set up to fail by the financial elites, the globalists that have been running the Obama administration's economic policy and the Federal Reserve. Our Humpty-Dumpty economy is bound for a great fall, regardless of the current President's best intentions, and the most deeply important question of the next four years is who is going to be putting the pieces back together, and how they do it.
Trump talks about "draining the swamp." In addition to the morass of Washington politicians and professionals he references so successfully, I believe there are four economic swamps looming ahead that lie between us and full recovery from the fairy-tale economics of the last eight years and the crash that seems imminent.
The first swamp is our massive and uncontrolled national debt. There is no agreement in Washington on how to hold down or reduce our mounting debt, and according to the Congressional Budget Office, interest on the national debt is going to balloon and become greater than all other budget spending categories by 2050. Many experts agree that Trump's program to rebuild America cannot be accomplished without adding many trillions to the already existing $20 trillion dollar-bonded debt total. That's the first swamp that needs to be drained, and we haven't addressed it yet. The system needs to be cleansed before we can truly move forward.
The second swamp is our hidden fiscal gap. Off the books government obligations are estimated to be as high as $50 to $100 trillion, if you can believe that. No audit has ever been officially published or acknowledged. This obligation is like a hidden credit card bill containing purchases the government has made for decades and keeping out of public view. This is something else that President Trump will be forced to address if he wants to strengthen and rationalize our economy and financial system.
The third swamp is short-term debt maturity. Sixty percent of the nation's $20 trillion in public debt is coming due, and will be payable during Trump's first term. In the next 48 months, $12 trillion will need to be printed or borrowed at a higher interest rate to pay holders of maturing U.S. Treasuries. If anyone can figure out how to find this money, it is Donald Trump, and I hope he'll do it smartly and not just continue printing dollars, which will likely weaken in the face of the difficulties we're facing.
And the final swamp to be drained is suppressed double-digit inflation that I think is on the way. Wages and prices both have been held low for decades by low GDP, and as growth strengthens, they will soar, taking inflation up with them. Trump's projects of infrastructure modernization and rebuilding the military will inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy, which again could easily lead to double-digit 1970s style inflation. As Trump takes the brakes off by removing regulations and barriers to production that have been in place for several administrations, requiring massive amounts of capital. It will certainly look insane, but it's the right thing to do.
In case you wonder if I'm a lone voice crying in the wilderness, I can assure you that I have company. Economist James Dale Davidson, who correctly predicted the collapse of 1999 and 2007 said recently that key indicators combine to spell out S-E-L-L, adding that a 50% collapse is not just looming, it's on our doorstep. Mark Faber, publisher of Gloom Boom Doom, says that 2017 is the year that a U.S. economic crisis a world economic collapse. He goes on to assert that Trump will not be able to stop a dollar crisis, a stock market crash, or a rise in the prices of gold and silver. Andrew Smithers, and economist with an unsettling history of being prophetic, was quoted as saying that U.S. stocks are about 80% overvalued, backing up his predictions using a ratio leading to the conclusion that the only times in history stocks were this risky were in 1929 and 1999, and we all know what happened in those years: stocks fell by 89% in 1929 and by 50% in 1999. Ann Rutledge of Forbes believes that a slide began in 2013 and is well under way. And Peter Costa, President of Empire Executions, has made the surprising move of pulling out of the market, believing a major correction is on the way.
This is not the time to stay complacent and start humming "Happy Days Are Here Again." It is, instead, time to gird your loins and make tough choices about how to protect your hard-earned wealth. Look at cash and precious metals, look for ways to preserve what you have during what seems certain to be a very rocky 2017 and beyond.
For over a quarter century, Dawn Bennett has been successfully guiding clients through the complexities of wealth management. Her unique vision and insight into market trends makes Bennett a much sought after expert resource with regular appearances on Fox News Channel, CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and MSNBC as well as being featured in Business Week, Fortune, The NY Times, The NY Sun, Washington Business Journal in addition to her highly regarded weekly talk radio program - Financial Mythbusting. Through prudent and thoughtful advice, Dawn Bennett has strived to consistently provide the highest quality of guidance.
About Dawn Bennett
Dawn Bennett is CEO and Founder of Bennett Group Financial Services. She hosts a national radio program called Financial Myth Busting http://www.financialmythbusting.com.
She discusses educational topics and events in the financial news, along with her thoughts on the economy, financial markets, investments, and more with her live guests, who have included rock legend Ted Nugent, as well as Steve Forbes and Grover Norquist. Listeners can call 855-884-DAWN a as well as take podcasts on the road and forums for interaction.
She can be reached on Twitter @DawnBennettFMB or on Facebook Financial Myth Busting with Dawn Bennett.