Epidemiology: COPD in China - Aging, Population Growth, and Increased Survival Will Drive Up Prevalent Cases over the Next Decade

Dallas, TX -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/19/2012 -- The new research report shows that out to 2010, COPD will continue to be a major threat to Chinese adults. The number of prevalent cases of COPD will increase substantially between 2011 and 2021, increasing from approximately 42 million to nearly 56 million. This increase will be driven by demographic changes over the forecast period, including increased survival and a larger aged population.

Features and benefits
- Gain insight to market potential, including a robust 10-year epidemiology forecast of COPD prevalent cases in China.
- Understand the key epidemiologic risk factors associated with COPD in China.

Highlights
The strong association between age and COPD means that the prevalence of COPD in the future will be especially sensitive to the increased survival that will result as access to healthcare increases; even though the disease is irreversible, its progress can be significantly slowed by quitting smoking and seeking medical care.

Fewer than half of the estimated 42.83 million prevalent cases in 2011 were in the population between the ages of 40 and 60 years (14.56 million), which indicates that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is truly a disease of the aged in China.

Urbanization will play a major role in the increase in the number of prevalent cases of COPD between 2011 and 2021. The average annual growth rate in urban settings will be 16 times that of the rural population (6.7% versus 0.4%).

Your key questions answered
- What are the most robust epidemiological studies for COPD prevalence in China?
- How will the patient population change over the next decade in the China?
- How do changes in population structure or risk factors affect the number of COPD cases in China in the forecast period?

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Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Epidemiologic results summary

DISEASE DEFINITION AND DIAGNOSOTIC CRITERIA
Spirometry is the gold standard for defining COPD
Classification of COPD

TRENDS IN COPD EPIDEMIOLOGY IN CHINA
Under-diagnosis is common
The burden of COPD is increasing
Models of COPD burden
Trends in COPD over the forecast period

DRIVERS OF COPD EPIDEMIOLOGY IN CHINA
Age
Smoking
Biomass fuels
Pollution
Industry-related exposures

EPIDEMIOLOGIC FORECASTING OF COPD IN CHINA
Sources of epidemiologic data
Source used
Unused sources

EPIDEMIOLOGIC RESULTS
Total prevalence of COPD in China
National
Rural and urban estimates
Tier 1 cities estimates
Tier 2 cities estimates
Estimating COPD cases by severity
Age and gender
Age-standardized prevalence rates

DISCUSSION
Strengths of Datamonitor's epidemiologic projections

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers

APPENDIX
Module methodology

List of Tables

Table: Total prevalent cases of COPD in adults ages 40+ in China (millions), 2011–21
Table: Total prevalent cases of COPD in adults ages 40+ in China (000s), by severity, 2011
Table: Total prevalent cases of COPD in China (millions), by age group, 2011

List of Figures

Figure: Classification of COPD, as measured by airflow limitation
Figure: Total prevalent cases of current COPD in adults aged 40+ in China (millions), 2011–21
Figure: Total prevalent cases of COPD in Tier 1 cities in adults aged 40+ in China, 2011–21
Figure: Total prevalent cases of current COPD in China (millions), by age and gender, 2011
Figure: Age-specific total prevalent cases of COPD in China (millions), 2011–21
Figure: Age-standardized prevalence rates of current COPD in China, by gender and location, 2011

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