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Freight Transport Reports Q4 2014 of Australia, Argentina, Egypt Have Been Launched from


Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/29/2014 -- The Australian economy grew by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) after seasonal adjustments in Q114, reaccelerating from a pace of 0.8% recorded in Q413. Strong export growth was further accentuated by a contraction in imports, which saw the goods and services balance move into the black in Q114 for the first time in nine quarters. Given that latest data from the Chinese customs authorities for April showing another surge in iron ore imports (which are primarily from Australia) to 24.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), we have upgraded our real GDP growth forecast to 2.3% to account for the stronger export performance. Australia's real GDP growth is expected to remain firm, averaging 2.7% in the 10-year period from 2014 to 2023. In particular, we believe commodity exports and a renewed interest in skilled immigration will be key drivers in helping the economy return to its trendline growth of around 3.0% from 2017 onwards, following a slowdown over 2013-2016.

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Argentina Freight Transport Report Q4 2014:
Publisher maintains its cautious outlook for the Argentine freight transport sector. A more drastic slowdown than we previously expected in various high frequency indicators have led us to revise down our forecast for Argentine real private consumption and gross fixed capital formation growth in 2014. As a result, our real GDP growth forecast is 0.4% in 2014, a downward revision from our earlier forecast of 1.2%, as the impacts of the January currency devaluation weigh on private consumption and fixed investment to a greater extent than we had originally factored in. This forecast implies an even greater slowdown from 3.0% real GDP growth in 2013. The main driver of the slowdown is the impact of the country's January 23 currency devaluation, which sent inflation expectations soaring. As a result consumer confidence has plunged.

Publisher acknowledge that there are some risks remain to the upside, as an improving business environment and more moderate economic policies could lead to a surge in inbound investment into the country's oil and gas sector. Nevertheless, we caution that on top of its internal economic difficulties, the country is struggling with a considerable infrastructure deficit. Investment is needed across the board if the country's rail freight system is to handle increasing volumes in the coming years.

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Egypt Freight Transport Report Q4 2014:
Political uncertainty will continue to affect the Egyptian economy in 2014 as the country continues through its rocky transitional period towards democracy. However, the election of former Field Marshall Sisi to the presidency following elections at the end of May 2014 will serve to reduce political risk and will introduce a measure of stability not seen since the ouster of President Mubarak in 2011. Sisi's election will provide a veneer of political legitimacy, thereby releasing US aid flows, and should help the economy get back on track. A recovering economy will be felt in the country's ports and airports and on its freight services, as consumer demand and investment into infrastructure picks up, thereby boosting container and dry and liquid bulk freight services.

Increased security would help in reviving tourism, and other industries, and serve to boost container volumes through Egypt's ports. Equally, should investment start flowing into the country once more then dry bulk volumes for infrastructure projects could also see an uptick.
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