Market Research Reports, Inc. has announced the addition of “India Business Forecast Report Q1 2015” research report to their offering.
Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/23/2014 -- We expect the progress of relations between India and Pakistan to remain slow, despite recent efforts to improve them. We believe that the long-standing dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir is unlikely to be resolved any time soon, and will continue to strain Indo-Pakistani relations for the foreseeable future. Consequently, security issues will be a greater concern than economic co-operation for India. We maintain our above consensus forecast for India's real GDP growth to accelerating to 5.6% (consensus expectations of 5.4%) in FY2014/15 (April-March), from 4.7% in FY2013/14.
Greater policy certainty and positive regulatory improvements will support an economic growth revival over the coming quarters. While the pace of recovery will also depend on the timing of monetary easing, we have seen optimistic signs from the strong Q1 GDP print. Although headline inflation has eased somewhat in India, they remain at elevated levels, amongst the highest in the region. That said, we believe that inflationary pressures will ease over the short and medium term. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its repurchase rate at 8.00% at its September policy meeting.
We forecast the central bank to stay determined to contain medium-term price pressures and therefore stand pat on interest rates at its next meeting in December. However, we expect the central bank to ease interest rates by 25 basis points to 7.75% by Q4FY2014/15 as it turns its focus towards supporting economic growth. Over the longer term, we remain constructive on the Indian rupee (INR) but expect a slow appreciation as the RBI seeks stability in the currency. We forecast the Indian rupee to appreciate slowly, averaging INR59.25/USD in 2015 and INR58.50/USD in 2016, supported by improved economic growth prospects.
Major Forecast Changes
We have upgraded up our forecasts for consumer price inflation to come in at 7.7% at the end of FY2014/15 (April-March) on the back of a likelihood that low levels of rainfall could persist for longer. That said, we believe that the government will actively employ measures to address the supply in the domestic market, should inflation worsens. We have revised our forecast for the INR to average INR59.25/USD in 2015 and INR58.50/USD in 2016 but remain constructive on the unit. Our revision was predicated on the back of recent weakness in the INR and continued intervention in the open market by the RBI in 2014.
The India Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in India and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of India's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (Publisher).
Forecast the pace and stability of India's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
Contextualise India's country risks against regional peers using Publisher's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
Evaluate external threats to doing business in India, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The India Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (Publisher) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.
How will the India economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?
Publisher provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for India through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The India Business Forecast Report features Publisher's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and Publisher's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
Publisher's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
Rely upon Publisher's 100% independent forecast scenarios for India and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
Exploit the benefits of Publisher's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on India, sourced and fully maintained by Publisher from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from Publisher's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in India over the next 5-years?
Publisher's India country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents:
SWOT Analysis for the India Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing India.
Political Stability and Risk Assessment - Publisher's Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings, rankings and trends for India's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
Current Administration and Policy-making Publisher assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
Benchmark India's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through Publisher's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.
Business Environment Risk Rankings with SWOT Analysis - Business Environment Risk Rankings for India, benchmarked against rankings for regional neighbours.
Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of India's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.
Business Environment Contents:
Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.
Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using Publisher's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using Publisher's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Rankings.
Key Sector Outlook:
Which industry sectors in India will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?
Publisher's identifies investment opportunities in India's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.
Key Areas Covered:
Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2009-2013, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2014-2018, using Publisher's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - Publisher's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.
Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.
Spanning over 51 pages, “India Business Forecast Report Q1 2015” report covering the Executive Summary Political Outlook, Economic Outlook, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, 10-Year Forecast, Operational Risk, Key Sectors.
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