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TradingLounge.com.au Global Technical Analysis Trading Report 28 May 2013

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New South Wales, Australia -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/28/2013 -- Global Technical Analysis Report

Dow Jones 15,303 -0.06%            
SP500 1,649 -0.06%                      
NASDAQ 2,991 -0.01%     
FSTE 6,654 -0.62%            
Base Metals                         
US Spot Gold CFD 1393
US Spot Silver CFD 2260
Oil WTI CFD 93.63
US Copper CFD 329
US Dollar CFD 83.73
EURUSD 1.2932
AUDUSD 0.9650
DJI CFD 15,336
S&P500 CFD 1653
FTSE 100 CFD 6693
DAX CFD 8386
Shanghai Comp 2293
ASX 200 CFD 4937

Market Analysis Summary

US & UK Cash Markets Closed – Indices Futures Markets edge higher

-  US & UK Indices are in corrective rallies to their 61.8% targets that should complete in the next session

Commodities – There is no confirmation as yet, however the USD is expected higher placing pressure on base and precious metals within two sessions. Lower base metals opens the door for shorting BHP RIO FMG the materials sectors

Forex – Waiting for the USD to push higher towards 85.00 opening opportunities to short the Euro. The AUDUSD is expected to rally in five small waves towards 98 before rolling over lower towards 95 to complete a larger bearish wave structure.

Indices – Cash markets in the UK and US were closed. The Elliott Wave abc rally as Wave ii should complete in the next two sessions, confirmation of Wave iii and the trade set up will unfold in the coming sessions.

Stocks – US banks are in a wave four corrective retracement. Continue to short the materials sector. A break higher in the USD will place further pressure on the materials sector.

Commodities Trading

US Spot Gold CFD 1393
TradingLevels: The 1400 would be require as solid support to create a bullish set up and a breaking of SG2 1365|1372|1380 for the bearish set up. As soon as there is doubt that the Feds will slow the printing of money gold will drop. The other catalyst is when US indices start wave three lower in the next trading session
Elliott Wave: There is not enough evidence to call in a bullish impulse structure, so we will continue run with the bearish counter trend rally.  
CFD Trading Strategy: The 1372 as tested resistance for short trades and 1400 as tested support for long trades.

US Spot Silver CFD 2260
Technical Analysis: Same - Support on 2300 creates long trades. 2200 as resistance creates short trades. The midpoint 2250 could be used as an earlier trade in either direction, but it must be tested

Oil WTI CFD 93.63
Technical Analysis:  The pattern sitting on 93.00 the top of minor group1 is considered corrective wave four and wave fours tend to develop sideways. Once the US Indices start moving lower we should see oil break support at 93 and move lower towards the mediumlevel support 90. There will obviously be supports at 92 and 91. On the flipside, support on 95.00 creates the bullish trend.

Base Metals

US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper:           Last: 3.28
US Nickel:             Last: 6.67-
US Zinc:                Last: 0.8251+
US Aluminium       Last: 0.8106-

US Copper CFD 329
Short term bearish outlook on copper. It can rally back to 335 before moving down to 325
As mentioned earlier this will take the materials sector lower BHP RIO FMG… So look for short trades and trends lower.

Forex Trading

US Dollar CFD 83.73
TradingLevels:  The top of Minor group1 83.00 is the support. There is a reasonable chance that the market can bounce up from the midpoint 83.50 as mentioned earlier and support on 84.00 would confirm further upside to 85.00. So support on 84.00 can be a trigger to short the Euro. Intraday traders can also use SG2 8365|8372|8380 as support especially the 8372 but it is the 84 as support that can confirm the trend up as the bonds notes etc are still bearish and will continue lower.
Elliott Wave: Once again the Wave (iv) can be competed now, however we don’t have the evidence of a move up in terms of an impulse wave and wave fours can be time consuming and complicated, so we wait for the first impulse wave up to confirm the trend and Wave (v)

EURUSD 1.2932
TradingLevels: As long as the minorlevel 1.30 holds as resistance the bearish stances holds.
Elliott Wave: This wave four off the 128 can get more sideways and complicated. Look out for lower highs on each retest of 130 this would indicate weakness and shorting opportunities to continue to build the short trade
Trading Strategies: 1.29 as tested resistance would a reasonably safe short trade.  Also look for the USD to develop support on 84.00 and the US indices to move lower.

AUDUSD 0.9650
TradingLevels: Looking for a bounce off 96
Elliott Wave: Wave (b) completing into 0.96. Followed by Wave (c) up higher towards 0.98 in five waves to complete Wave iv).
Trading Strategies: Long trades look for support on the midpoint 9650 then 9672.  The resistance / supply levels 9665 – 97 zone so expect choppy price action. 

Indices Trading

DJI CFD 15,336
TradingLevels:  Cash markets closed. The futures market edges higher towards the 50/62% retracement level. Even though there is a bearish Elliott wave count, while the market is sitting above Minor group1 15,300 the market is positive. According to the tradinglevels when the pivot within minor group1 the 15,200 is the tested resistance then the market is in bearish mode. This is an important point from the trading point of view and managing risk.
Elliott Wave: The abc corrective Wave ii rally is maturing now into the Wave c of ii. The 61.8% is 15,393.
Trading Strategies: The 15,300 as tested resistance creates short trades. You can short from higher levels; however you will need to understand when Wave c of the abc is completed. Wave c will have five waves.

S&P500 CFD 1653
TradingLevels: The market is playing out across the mediumlevel 1650 and will tray and reach higher towards the 50/62% ratio level at SG2 1665|1672 once completed expect further downside
Elliott Wave: The market is in Wave C) of the A) B) C) as Wave ii) rally 50/62% and supply levels 1660 - 1672
CFD Trading Strategies:  Looking to short once the Wave ii is complete and confirmed by an impulse wave lower

FTSE 100 CFD 6693
TradingLevels: Cash market closed.  The futures edge higher as Wave ii rally
Elliott Wave: Same - Even though the UK is lower than the US, the wave structure appears lagging, that is the abc wave ii rally is starting here whereas the US indices are maturing.  That said the UK indices will follow, so when the US indices complete Wave C) of two in the next session and start to move lower the UK Indices will have a short Wave ii rally to 6700 – 6720.

DAX CFD 8386
TradingLevels: The Dax has trended up for 23 days and only corrected for two days, so expect more corrective price action over the week ahead. The current correction is from the 8500 minor level 5.  If the US indices do move lower after the abc wave ii then the Dax could move back to 8000. Intraday; the look for the 50/62% retracement level target for this current abc rally in line with the US indices which is around the 84.00

Shanghai Comp 2293
The Shenzhen is leading the way higher, so the Shanghai should follow. The support on to of minor group1 the 2300 is the important price point for higher ground and setting lifting the target to the next level 2500 the mediumlevel.

ASX 200 CFD 4937
TradingLevels: Yesterday was lower but on lower volume this is support moving in for the wave four rally and retest of the new supply level 5000
Day Trading Strategy: The same as yesterday; rally off these lows 4900… would be a Wave (iv) retracement to 5000 or the wave four of one lesser degree 5100 but first things first the 4950 midpoint would be required to develop support. While the market is above the current lows 4920 expect a rally, a breaking of the current lows simply means Wave (iii) is not completed yet

Today's Financial Events Australian Time AEST

9:50am           JPY     CSPI y/y        
4:00pm           CHF    Trade Balance         
                    EUR   German Import Prices m/m
5:15pm           CHF    Employment Level  
10:30pm         CAD   Corporate Profits q/q                                  
11:00pm         USD   S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y    
12:00am        USD   CB Consumer Confidence         
                        USD   Richmond Manufacturing Index  
3:00am           GBP    MPC Member Tucker Speaks

NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting check the company financial calendar before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while US markets are trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.

Good Morning & Good Luck!

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