‘Recency Bias’ is about yesterday. It is a phrase most often used in the stock market, but it applies to all types of phenomena - stocks markets, climate patterns and real estate markets. Many people suppose that if particular stock rose last year that it will rise again this year, and by the same rate. Whereas, when considering investments, thinking about what happened yesterday can lead to bad decision-making.
Las Vegas, NV -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/20/2014 -- Rob Flitton, “The Closer”, a top Vegas REALTOR and real estate agent Las Vegas, is a recognized local industry leader when it comes to market analysis and forecasting, and has recently published an informative opinion article about recency bias as it relates to real estate. Click here to read the full article.
“The big rise in the market of homes for sale in Las Vegas through 2012 and 2013 got the media hepped up in proclaiming that the market is healthy again”, said Flitton, “but yet the market has been dead flat for the last 4 months, and now we have learned that the confidence level of Las Vegas new home builders has dropped dramatically, too.”
Predicting the future of any real estate market can be challenging, but predicting it beyond a few months using yesterday’s data is not viable. Accordingly, the only proper basis for real estate market predictions is the ratio between supply and demand which must be constantly monitored and evaluated and only gives the analyst a short term vision.
Added Flitton, “this year’s market might be good or poor - no one knows - and accordingly I am opposed to promotional types of media reporting about it. So whether the market of for sale homes in Las Vegas will rise or fall is certain … what is certain is that it will not be determined by what happened last year.
About Rob Flitton
A highly successful Vegas REALTOR and real estate agent in Las Vegas, and a negotiation and internet marketing specialist with over 30 years of experience and is responsible for more than $250 million in transactions.
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