Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Poland Freight Transport Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/28/2014 -- Recovery Will Be Slow And Protracted
Although we continue to predict a recovery in the Polish economy, it looks a rather long, drawn-out affair and we have reduced our growth forecasts since our last quarterly report. We now expect 2013 GDP growth of 1.2%, down from the 1.5% we had pencilled in three months ago. We have also cut the projection for 2014 to 2.3% GDP growth (vs. 2.7% before) and for 2015 to 2.8% (vs.4.1% before). Over the short term, net exports will continue to be the main engine of growth, although we see them improving relatively tentatively. The key here will be the performance of Poland's main export market, Germany. Although the domestic labour market remains weak, an improvement in H213 should help lift household consumption: certainly there are signs of gradual improvement in consumer confidence. We expect government spending to be muted and investment remains in the doldrums. While all this points to a gradual improvement, medium-term growth prospects are becoming increasingly challenging given low levels of R&D and innovation in Polish manufacturing and increasing competition from South-Eastern European countries such as Romania and Turkey. This is likely to prevent a rapid return to 4%-plus annual growth rates.
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Within this context, the outlook for the country's freight transport modes is mixed. After a slow 2013, greater GDP and foreign trade growth in 2014 will make a positive contribution. Some freight modes will have the additional benefit of increases in capacity or extra demand because of Poland's role as a gateway into north-eastern Europe. The port of Gdansk is an example, still enjoying double-digit expansion, reflecting the rapid development of its capacity, as well as its good business links. The largest global container line, Maersk Line, is its customer, and the shipping company now offers the facility as a port of call on some of its direct Asia-Europe services.
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 4.9% (on a par with our estimate for 2013);
- 2014 rail freight is forecast to grow by 2.0%, after a 4.2% fall the preceding year;;
- 2014 Port of Gdansk throughput is forecast to grow by a still-strong 10..9% (slower than the estimated 30% surge in 2013);
- 2014 road freight is forecast to grow by 2.6%, after contraction of 2.4% in 2013;
- 2014 inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 2.7% (-2.7% in 2013);
- 2014 total real trade growth is forecast at 3.3%, up from 2.5% in 2013.
Key Industry Trends:
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