Lewes, DE -- (SBWire) -- 10/23/2015 --Throughout 2016, we expect Belarus to continue to align its security and economy with Russia, even though the former has begun deepening its diplomatic links with Western Europe. We expect defence spending to remain limited over the medium term due to low threats from domestic unrest, terrorism and interstate conflict as well as difficult economic conditions. New procurement will continue to focus on the aerospace segment, in line with the government's stated goal of building up the Belarusian air force. Due to the limited production capabilities of domestic manufacturers, contracts for aircraft and air defence systems will be awarded to foreign companies - predominantly from Russia.
In 2016 we expect the Belarusian defence budget to reach USD828mn. This is a relatively small figure - both on a regional and global comparison - and makes up only 1.4% of GDP, reflecting the low risks from terrorism, domestic unrest and interstate conflict in the country, as well as difficult economic conditions. The majority of new procurement will focus on the aerospace segment, in line with the government's stated goal of building up the capacity of the Belarusian air force.
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There has been a significant improvement in the anti-narcotics campaign with the arrest and deaths of several drug cartel leaders and officials. Some of the largest cartels have suffered losses and the campaign has received considerable praise. Nonetheless, civil unrest is likely to escalate in the short to medium term due to both corruption and cartel violence. While the defence budget is now tied to GDP, and is thus unlikely to fall relative to other elements of government expenditure; the peso's loss of value, combined with other macroeconomic factors, is likely to hold down any big ticket procurement items in the short term. From 2016 to 2019, the defence budget will count for just 0.5% of Mexico's GDP.
Despite the success of the anti-narcotics campaign in recent years with the arrest and deaths of several drug cartels and officials, the drug war continues to intensify and become even more brutal as new organizations are forming to fill the void. Because of the ongoing support of both the Mexican government and the US, the campaign against the cartels will not see gang violence become a long-term issue, but the campaign could easily mean a temporary increase in spending on reconnaissance and intelligence equipment.
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The Spanish armed forces have experienced significant challenges in recent years on account of the situation regarding the Spanish defence budget. Spain's financial crisis prompted the government to perform significant cutbacks as far as defence spending was concerned in a bid to rain in government spending. As a result, several major Spanish defence modernisation programmes were either reduced or postponed. This was in addition to a wider downsizing of the country's armed forces. Following this prolonged period of defence budget reductions, the country is now expected to slowly reverse this trend, increasing its defence expenditure over our forecast period to 2019 and beyond.
Towards the end of the decade, the Spanish government will increase defence spending to the highest levels witnessed since 2011. This represents an important growth as far as defence spending is concerned. Nevertheless, while defence spending increases will inject much needed resources into the various modernisation processes either underway or on hold in the Spanish armed forces, it will not, in real terms,increase Spanish defence expenditure as a proportion of GDP. The country will continue to spend 1% of its GDP on defence equipment purchases, below NATO's non-binding requirement for a country to spend a minimum of 2% of its GDP on defence annually.
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Belarus, Mexico and Spain Defence and Security Report 2015 Market Report; Launched via MarketResearchReports.com
Market Research Reports, Inc. has announced the addition of “Belarus, Mexico and Spain Defence and Security Report 2015” research report to their website www.MarketResearchReports.