Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 10/18/2013 --The Indian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on India's economic outlook of fiscal and trade deficits that remain near historic highs.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Indian retail market while minimising investment risk, and explores the impact of depressed EU demand on the Indian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Indian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Indian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 45% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 43%. India comes second (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms for risk.
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Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms. Sales are forecast to increase by 84.6% between 2013 and 2017, from US$33.14bn to US$61.19bn, as India's emerging middle class continues to drive demand for new goods and services and rural retailing presents expansion opportunities. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the removal of foreign direct investment (FDI) restrictions in multi-brand retail announced in September 2012.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts:
- From our perspective, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Indian economy is entering the early stages of a cyclical growth bounce on the back of the ongoing easing by the central bank and a slowly improving external demand picture (among other factors). Recent economic data continue to provide scope for cautious optimism with regard to the economy's near-term prospects. Having said that, the massive amount of uncertainty fomented by the country's dogged structural twin deficits suggests to us that any cyclical bounce is likely to be capped. As such, we have downgraded our FY2013/14 and FY2014/15 real GDP growth forecasts to 5.5% and 6.0%, from 6.2% and 6.7% respectively. ¦ Real private consumption growth is projected to improve to 4.5% in FY2013/14 from an estimated 4.0% last fiscal year, contributing 2.8 percentage points to headline real GDP growth. Private consumption remains the largest component of India's national accounts, equivalent to approximately 60.0% of GDP.
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BMI India Retail Report Q4 2013 - New Study Released
Fast Market Research recommends "BMI India Retail Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available