Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 08/01/2013 --Reports suggesting that the 2012/13 cocoa harvest is of an excellent standard will come as welcome relief to a sector hit by bad weather and concerns over quality in recent years. With the EU bringing in tests for the heavy metal cadmium, the industry will need to rise to the challenge of maintaining these improvements in cocoa quality. If they can do so, they will be well placed to take advantage of the higher prices expected from 2015 onwards as the EU recovers and West African rivals struggle. Corn farmers also look to be enjoying a better-than-expected harvest as rainfall levels recovered to normal levels after a dry start to the season.
Key Forecasts
- Corn consumption growth to 2017: 51.5% to 1.7mn tonnes. Rising incomes and a growing population will see rapid growth in demand for the staple grain.
- Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 16.1% to 240,400 tonnes. Government and private sector investment will improve yields and quality, leading to increased exports.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2017: 23.2% to 306,800 tonnes. Significant increases in GDP per capita, rapid population growth and a fast expanding food and drink sector will support solid growth.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$1.29bn in 2013 (up from US$1.15bn in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 6.6% on average to 2017).
- 2013 real GDP growth: 5.3% (up from 5.0% in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 4.5% on average between 2013 and 2017).
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 2.5% year-on-year (up from 2.0% in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 2.5% on average between 2013 and 2017).
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Key Revisions To Forecasts
- Corn production forecast revised up, to 1.3mn tonnes in 2012/13 (from a previous forecast of 1.18mn tonnes).
Industry Developments
As of April 2013, all cocoa imported into the European Union will be subject to tests for the heavy metal cadmium. Consignments containing more than 0.2mg of cadmium per kilogram may now be turned back. The presence of the metal may be due to the use of phosphate fertilisers or may occur naturally in volcanic soils. This could apply to Cameroonian cocoa products, as some of the country's most fertile lands are in areas of high volcanic activity.
The indications are that at the very least the 2012/13 cocoa harvest will not prove as disappointing as that of 2011/12. Dow Jones has reported higher exports and purchases by Cameroonian processers in 2012/13 compared with the previous year. The beans were also of excellent quality, according to independent experts brought in by the government to test the crop prior to export.
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