Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 03/15/2013 --BMI View: We hold a positive view on India agribusiness sector's outlook, as the country will remain an agricultural powerhouse and will very likely be able to maintain high levels of self-sufficiency for major food crops. Production growth of various commodities will be driven by strong government support and robust demand growth for manufactured foodstuffs. We see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as dairy, coffee and livestock. However, the country will remain prone to erratic government interventions, which seriously hampers its reputation as an international provider. Moreover, India will be increasingly vulnerable to exceptional weather phenomenon due to climate change effects and serious water shortages. Although a precarious monsoon in the first two months of the rainy season put pressure on some of India's key crops in 2012/13, we believe the impact on final production will be limited.
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Key Forecasts
- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 12.3% to 29.2mn tonnes. Strong growth will be driven by rising domestic demand that, in turn, will provide production incentives.
- Palm oil consumption growth to 2017: 35.1% to 10.0mn tonnes. Domestic palm oil consumption will be propelled by strong demand for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palm oil demand.
- Poultry production to 2016/17: 26.6% to 4.1mn tonnes. The sector will be driven by rising incomes and increased domestic demand as well as the emergence of vertically integrated producers with reduced consumer prices. It will also come from a raft of investments in the sector designed to improve growth.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.9% in 2012; predicted to average 5.6% from 2012 to 2017).
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 7.5% (down from 8.6% in 2012; forecast to average 6.3% from 2012 to 2017).
- 2013 central bank policy rate: 9.0% average (down from 8.1% in 2012).
Key Revisions To Forecasts
- Sugar production forecast for 2012/13 revised down, to 24.0mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 25.0mn tonnes). Lower rainfall will hamper yields and lead to a drop in production in the Maharashtra and Karnataka States, two of the main growing regions.
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India Agribusiness Report Q2 2013 - New Study Released
New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research