Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 11/27/2015 --There remains no end in sight to the ongoing maritime dispute between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea, and repeated clashes between Chinese and Vietnamese ships in disputed waters could escalate tensions. That said, given Vietnam's close economic linkages with China, we believe the former will not want to further strain ties with its larger neighbour.
The Vietnamese economy will remain a regional outperformer over the coming years on the back of strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and export resilience. As such, we forecast Vietnam's real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.6% in 2016, from an estimated 6.4% in 2015.
Get More Details on this Report and a Full Table of Contents at Vietnam Country Risk Report Q1 2016
Despite the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement on October 5 by the 12 countries involved, the pact may yet fall at the final hurdle as ratification by respective legislatures will still be met with strong challenges. That said, should the TPP come into force, Vietnam will be among the biggest winners. The trade deal, which entails the reduction of tariff barriers among participating members, will provide Vietnam's exports with greater market access, particularly to the US, which is its largest export destination.
Subdued inflation on the back of lower crude oil prices is providing increasing scope for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to loosen its monetary policy. As such, we forecast the central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bps to 6.00% by end-2016.
We expect Vietnam's fiscal revenue growth to accelerate on the back of a robust economy, ongoing SOE reforms and the positive tax reform policies that have been implemented in recent years. That said, a continued lack of spending prudence by the government will act as a drag. As such, we forecast the country's fiscal deficit as a share of GDP to narrow marginally to 4.9% in 2016, from an estimated 5.0% in 2015.
The Vietnam Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Vietnam. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Vietnam's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.
Key Uses
-Forecast the pace and stability of Vietnam's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
-Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
-Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
-Contextualise Vietnam's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
-Evaluate external threats to doing business in Vietnam, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Vietnam Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Vietnam' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Vietnam through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Vietnam Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
-Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
-BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
-Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
-Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
-Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
-Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
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Just Published: "Vietnam Country Risk Report Q1 2016"
Fast Market Research announces the availability of the new Business Monitor International report, "Vietnam Country Risk Report Q1 2016", on their comprehensive research portal