Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 01/07/2014 --We forecast that Iran will return to economic growth in 2014, with real GDP set to expand by 2.4% following our 2013 estimate of a 1.6% contraction. Container shipping also is set to take tentative steps to recovery. Risks to the upside to both of these forecasts are presented by the growing rapprochement between Iran and the international community. However, the country's shipping sector has been impacted severely by sanctions in recent years - another hit came in 2013 as since the introduction of strengthened US sanctions on July 1, all major shipping lines ceased calling at Iranian ports.
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast to grow by 3.1%, and average growth of 6.0% to 2018.
- 2018 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 1.992mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) - not enough to match 2011 volumes.
- 2014 total real trade is forecast to return to growth at 5.5%, and average 4.7% to 2018.
Key Industry Trends
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IRISL Scores A Hollow Victory: BMI notes with interest that Iranian shipping company IRISL, formerly Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, may have the European Union (EU) sanctions against it lifted before the close of 2013, following a September decision by the body's courts that they are based on insufficient evidence. We caution, however, that even if the EU sanctions are lifted little will have in reality changed for the beleaguered shipping line, with US sanctions still firmly in place, along with the more general limitations on interaction with the Iranian state.
Kish, Loallem To Continue To Underwrite India-Iran Crude Oil: The Indian authorities in October ruled that insurance covering ships from Iran carrying crude oil to India can continue. The ruling allows crude cargoes to continue to be underwritten by Iranian insurance firm Kish P&I and India's Loallem Insurance. In the 2012/13 financial year India imported approximately 13.1mn metric tonnes of crude from Iran, down from 18.1mn metric tonnes in the 2011/12 financial year.
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Market Report, "Iran Shipping Report Q1 2014", Published
New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Iran Shipping Report Q1 2014"