Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 07/23/2013 --Two of BMI's key views for Uganda's mobile market have played out since our last update. These are the likelihood for consolidation, which was confirmed by Airtel's bid and subsequent regulatory approval to acquire Warid Telecom, and the launch of commercial 4G LTE network services by MTN. We expect these developments, along with full implementation of mandatory SIM registration, to define competition dynamics in Uganda's mobile market over our forecast period, through to 2017. The Airtel- Warid merger could be the first of several mergers as we retain our view that the market is not capable of supporting more than five operators over the long term. Meanwhile, MTN's LTE network roll out will spur further investments in data networks as operators seek ways to diversify their revenue streams away from low-margin voice services.
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Key Data
- The mobile market grew by 1.8% in Q113, compared with 3.5% over the same period in 2012.
- Mobile ARPU remained below US$4 in Q113 despite an uptick in mobile data subscriptions.
- The fixed-line market grew by 11.2% in 2012.
Risk/Reward Ratings
Uganda climbed one place to 14th position in BMI's Q313 RRR table with an aggregate score of 41.5, up from 38.6 in the previous quarter. Uganda's highest score is in the country risks category, which reflects a positive real private consumption growth outlook during our forecast period, while its Industry Risk score was upgraded this quarter on the back of positive regulatory developments capable of boosting competition and driving growth.
Key Trends & Developments
In April 2013, Airtel announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Warid Uganda. The two are the second and third largest mobile operators in Uganda, and the merger will almost double Airtel's market share and put it in a good position to challenge MTN as market leader. The deal won regulatory approval in May 2013.
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Market Report, "Uganda Telecommunications Report Q3 2013", Published
Fast Market Research recommends "Uganda Telecommunications Report Q3 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available