Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 12/09/2013 --Pakistan's government is focused on increasing its pharmaceutical export capacity. However, we believe it would serve the country's population better if the government invested in improving local pharmaceutical production capabilities to ensure patient access to domestically manufactured drugs rather than imported medicines.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: PKR189.21bn (US$2.03bn) in 2012 to PRK209.43bn (US2.10bn) in 2013; +10.7% in local currency terms and +3.8% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: PKR515.60bn (US$5.52bn) in 2012 to PKR581.62bn (US$5.84bn) in 2013; +12.8% in local currency terms and +5.8% in US dollar terms.
Risk/Reward Ratings: We continue to expect improving healthcare provision in Asia Pacific to bring opportunities for pharmaceutical and medical devices players due to a wider pool of patients. However, the success of these healthcare services depends on its implementation and subsequent monitoring. We highlight that, due to poor governance, not all countries will be able to succeed in their quest for better healthcare. Aligning with this, in BMI's Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q114, Pakistan has maintained its poor rank of 15th out of the 19 markets in the regional matrix. Pakistan ranks below the regional averages for both composite Risk and Reward figures, despite its large and growing population.
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Key Trends & Developments
In September 2013, the Pakistan Observer reported that the cost of illegal price hikes for medicines by pharmaceutical companies in Pakistan amounted to PKR90bn (US$842mn) a year.
In the same month, Pakistan's Supreme Court issued notices to 22 pharmaceutical companies for selling drugs at higher prices than the rates fixed by the Drug Regulatory Authority (DRA).
BMI Economic View: We have downgraded our FY2013/14 (July-June) real GDP growth forecast for Pakistan to 3.4% from 4.0% previously, as the economy undergoes a painful but necessary adjustment on the back of a general tightening in both fiscal and monetary policy. As the country readjusts domestically, however, we note that an improving external demand outlook should provide some relief.
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