Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 07/16/2013 --We expect the Kazakh grain sector to outperform, especially as Kazakhstan gets more export opportunities to Central Asia and China. We see limited growth for the livestock and dairy sectors, as export potential for both industries will remain limited. Only domestic demand, which we expect to be strong, could partially encourage domestic production. That said, cheap imports from Russia could put local growers at a disadvantage. We have not identified any major public company operating in the sector that we would highlight.
Key Forecasts
- Wheat production to 2016/17: -18.6% to 18.5mn tonnes. Efforts to diversify into oilseeds and other field crops and little potential for a repeat of the perfect conditions of 2011/12 will see production fall over our five-year forecast period.
- Cheese consumption growth to 2017: 51.5% to 30,600 tonnes. This will come from increased demand for value-added dairy products on the back of accelerating urbanisation and improvements in infrastructure.
- Beef production growth to 2016/17: 35.7% to 576,700 tonnes. The comprehensive overhaul of the beef herd continues apace as imported breeding stocks improve quality.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 5.4%, up from 5.0% in 2012.
- 2013 average consumer price inflation: 6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 5.1% y-o-y in 2012.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 34.7% y-o-y decrease to US$6.9bn in 2012/13, forecast to grow on average 10.6% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
Industry Outlook
We maintain our forecast for wheat production in Kazakhstan to recover by 63.0% in 2013/14 to 16.0mn tonnes thanks to higher yields. The strong growth in output follows losses seen in 2012/13 as a result of severe droughts. Area harvested is set to increase by about 7.2% in 2013/14, while yields are set to recover by 43.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1.1 tonnes per hectare (ha). Spring sowings have not yet started, which leaves some uncertainty for yields in the short term; however, local industry sources indicate that rains in autumn and winter snow have improved soil moisture.
The Board of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) announced recently it would increase custom duties on several dairy products in order to protect domestic dairy producers against cheap competition in a context of high domestic feed and strong demand. The duties were raised on butter, cottage cheese and dairy spreads from 15% to 20%. For other types of dairy products, such as grated and powdered cheese, including Schabziger, duties were raised to 20%. Import duties on feta cheese made from cow milk were taken to 25% of their customs value (against 15% currently).
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Food research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Saudi Arabia Agribusiness Report Q3 2013
- India Agribusiness Report Q3 2013
- Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q3 2013
- France Agribusiness Report Q3 2013
- Thailand Agribusiness Report Q3 2013
- Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q3 2013
- Italy Agribusiness Report Q3 2013
- Turkey Agribusiness Report Q3 2013
- South Africa Agribusiness Report Q3 2013
- Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q3 2013
New Market Research Report: Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q3 2013
Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research