Now Available: Angola Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 07/30/2013 --In spite of repeated delays in project development, several productions sites are expected to come on-stream in the next few years offering large prospect for the oil and gas production to rise substantially in the coming decade. This is the case for the PSVM field (150,000b/d and 2.5bcm) and several fields in BP's Block 31(150,000b/d). Attempts to cut gas flaring and the opening of the Angola LNG plant also boost the outlook for gas production and export. Nevertheless, OPEC quotas, the risk of further project delays and the Angolan political environment still imply a significant amount of uncertainty.

Main trends and developments we highlight for Angola's oil and gas sector are as follows:

- We expect oil production to increase from approximately 1.84mn b/d in 2011 to 2.48mn b/d in 2021 with a 2.8mn b/d peak in 2016. This is the result of projects that have recently come onstream, such as Pazflor (220,000b/d), or that are scheduled to come onstream in the coming years, such as PSVM (150,000b/d).
- Consumption of crude is likely to rise at an average rate of 10.75% from 2011 to 2021. This very high rate of growth is boosted by the country's double-digit GDP growth, as the economy experiences a catching up phenomenon following nearly three decades of civil war. We therefore anticipate that consumption will rise from an estimated 88,000b/d in 2011 to hit 226,000b/d by 2021.
- We forecast that gas production will increase from 0.73bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 7.4bcm by 2021, as the authorities and companies reduce the practice of flaring and start to monetise/associated gas resources. The 2012 Angola LNG export hub will further incentivise gas production, leveraging on associated gas production from massive fields such as Pazflor (1.5bcm) and PSVM (2.5bcm).
- Gas demand is set to rise at an average rate of 2.23% although this hides a somewhat irregular pace. Relatively low demand growth when compared to growth in gas production and oil consumption can be explained by the fact that gas plays virtually no role in the country's electricity generation and that there are no plans to expand its share in the energy mix. As a result, we see gas consumption rising from 0.74bcm in 2011 to 0.93bcm by 2021.

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