Poland Shipping Report Q3 2013 - New Report Available

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 07/23/2013 --Since our last quarterly report, we have become a little gloomier about Poland's immediate economic outlook. The main reason for this is that private consumption is still in the doldrums, weighed down by high unemployment. We now estimate GDP growth in 2012 at 2.0%, and have cut our forecast for 2013 to 1.9% (down from 2.3%) and similarly trimmed the growth projection for 2014 to 3.0% (down from 3.7%). It is evident from these numbers that a recovery is on the way, but it is slower and more drawn-out affair than we had hoped. At present the focus is on weak domestic consumption; we also don't expect any significant stimulus to come from government spending as the Warsaw authorities seem committed to only gradually easing fiscal austerity measures. The Donald Tusk administration is eager to maintain a reputation for fiscal responsibility and not to put its access to EU cohesion funds at risk. Completing a rather depressing picture, we also expect investment growth to be weak, reflecting the high base effects of the investment surge running up to the 2012 European Football Championships, and a general wariness over the eurozone crisis. We believe that net exports will be the one significant bright spot, however, and the driver of a slow recovery emerging from the second half of this year. The point to watch here is the close linkage between the Polish and the German economies. Polish exports to Germany are significant, and Germany, we believe, will lead the European recovery.

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The country's major maritime ports will see positive growth in 2013. The port of Gdansk is seeing very sharp expansion, reflecting the rapid development of its capacity, as well as its good business links. The largest global container line, Maersk Line, is its customer, and the shipping company now offers the facility as a port of call on some of its direct Asia-Europe services, offering Poland's importers and exporters cheaper and quicker transport links to ports in China. While at a lower rate, Gdynia is also expected to grow, having enhanced its container role following its addition as a port of call on Hapag- Lloyd's service and further improvements of its intermodal links.

Headline Industry Data

- 2013 port of Gdansk tonnage throughput forecast to grow 8.5% to 29.17mn tonnes; over the medium term to 2017 we project a 5.9% average annual
- 2013 port of Gdansk container throughput forecast to grow 34.2% to 1.25mn TEUs; over the medium term we project a 16.6%average annual increase.
- Port of Gdynia tonnage to increase 0.8% to 15.93mn tonnes, with five-year average annual growth at 2.7% per annum.
- Port of Gdynia container handling growth predicted to be 7.9% in 2013, to 729,780 TEUS, with growth set to average 6.8% on the medium term to 2017
- 2013 total trade growth forecast at 2.5%, up from an estimated 0.6% in 2012.

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