Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 10/10/2014 --We maintain our construction industry real growth forecast for Egypt at 4.5% in FY2014 and 5.3% in FY2015 on the back of a strong project pipeline, robust demand for infrastructure, and increased political stability. However, Egypt's limited access to private capital for infrastructure development will continue to reinforce the country's dependence on external loans and financial assistance from allies in the region.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) as well as development assistance are critical to Egypt's infrastructure development. As political stability and policy clarity, as well as pent-up demand, entice investors back into the country, our Country Risk team expects a significant upswing in FDI inflows into Egypt over the coming quarters. Recent data shows a significant pickup over the past year. According to the Egyptian Central Bank, net FDI inflows came in at USD6.2bn in FY2014 (fiscal year running from July 2013-June 2014), a 14.2% change over the previous year. We expect this trend to continue as low base effects and relative stability bring investors back into the country after three years of stagnation and decline.
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Key Trends And Developments
Economic growth in Egypt will pick up over the coming quarters on the back of relative political stability. Fixed investment will be the primary driver of growth as a result of greater clarity on the economic policy front. Our Country Risk team forecasts 3.0% GDP real growth in FY2014/15 and 3.8% in FY2015/16.
Cement consumption and production, which we use a proxy for construction activity, saw average growth remain in positive territory in March and April (the latest data available), continuing a five-month uptrend. We have also seen the launching of three port projects in Egypt as well as a railway system in Cairo. These are encouraging signs for the development of the country's transport infrastructure and align with our increasingly positive view on the construction market.
President Sisi...
The Egypt Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Egypt Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Egyptian infrastructure and construction industry.
Key Benefits
Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Egyptian infrastructure market.
Target business opportunities and risks in the Egyptian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Egypt.
Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).
Industry Trends
Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:
Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.
Building Materials Overview
The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.
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Recent Study: Egypt Infrastructure Report Q4 2014
Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Egypt Infrastructure Report Q4 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research