Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 03/15/2013 --Core Views
We are forecasting real GDP growth in Botswana of 5.4% and 5.8% in 2013 and 2014 respectively as headline economic growth is constrained by a combination of subdued global demand for diamonds and a slowdown in public spending and private consumption.
Following four consecutive years of fiscal deficits, we expect FY2012/13 to mark a welcome return to the black for a government which has put fiscal consolidation among its top policy priorities over the next few years.
With general elections in 2014 and a newly-launched political opposition party beginning to flex its muscles, we believe the next 12 months will see political tensions in Botswana head higher.
Major Forecast Changes
Botswana's fiscal position in FY2012/13 is likely to be significantly healthier than initially projected and we are now forecasting a budget surplus of 1.4% of GDP compared to a 1.7% deficit previously. This is primarily due to larger-than-expected shared customs revenue from SACU which has helped offset a sharp slowdown in mineral revenue growth.
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Key Risks To Outlook
A greater than anticipated deterioration in the global economy (namely an intensification of the eurozone crisis) would put further downward pressure on demand for diamond exports and thus pose significant risks to our growth forecasts.
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Recently Released Market Study: Botswana Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Botswana Business Forecast Report Q2 2013"