Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 11/11/2014 --The region is still struggling with disease outbreaks in the coffee sector in 2013/14. We believe the region will continue to suffer as low global coffee prices limit investment potential. Even if prices have rebounded recently, we believe they are overstretched and see them going back towards the USc140-150/lb level in the near term. Central America is generally dependent on imports for corn, and we expect the production deficit to widen over our forecast period. That said, Central America is expected to remain self-sufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar exports. The sugar industry has the potential to attract investment over the medium term.
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Key Forecasts
- Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 10.9% to 14.9mn bags. We believe the coffee sector will continue to battle with disease and weather problems, while low global prices will limit investment in the crop, at least in the coming years. We see more potential for the sector in the long term.
- Corn consumption growth to 2018: 11.9% to 6.8mn tonnes. Demand growth for corn will far outpace production in Central America, affecting prices and keeping the area import-dependent for its grain needs.
- Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 4.2% to 5.2mn tonnes. Most countries in the region will continue to run a small production surplus out to 2017/18, and development of the export industry could present upside risks to our production forecasts over the long term.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 3.2% year-on-year (y-o-y). Stable compared to 2013. Real GDP growth is predicted to average 3.5% over our forecast period.
- Consumer price inflation: 4.5% y-o-y in 2014. Stable compared with 2013 and predicted to average 4.9% over 2012-2017.
Industry Outlook
We expect that recent strength in the Guatemalan quetzal is likely to unwind over the medium term, in line with our view for a...
The Central America Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
Key Benefits
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Belize, Honduras.
Industry SWOT Analysis
At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.
Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI's Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.
Downstream Analysis
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Browse all Food research reports at Fast Market Research
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Report Published: "Central America Agribusiness Report Q4 2014"
New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Central America Agribusiness Report Q4 2014"