Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 03/15/2013 --We retain our very positive outlook on the Qatari consumer sector, even as local economic growth has slowed. Although Qatar is set to remain one of the star performers of the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region in the near term, the economy lost some momentum in 2012, largely as a result of slowing growth in the hydrocarbon sector. With signs of higher inflation and a slowdown in bank lending, as well as a plateau forming in oil production, we expect 2013 growth to be more moderate than in the past few years, and have adjusted our GDP forecast downward to 5.0%, from 6.8% previously. Nevertheless, consumer confidence is expected to remain strong, with consumers benefiting from a highly expansionary policy stance on the part of the government, with large public sector wage hikes continuing to bolster household incomes.
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Qatari private consumption has been expanding rapidly in the past few years, given further impetus by a 60% hike to the wages of public sector employees, approved in September 2011. The YouGov/Bayt.com consumer confidence index has remained broadly stable throughout 2012; in the latest survey (done in October), 54% of Qatari respondents expected both personal finances and employment opportunities to become better in a year's time. We therefore expect household spending to remain expansionary through 2013, albeit at a growth rate lower than in previous years.
Headline Industry Data
- 2013 food consumption growth = +6.13%; forecast to 2017 = +35.4%.
- 2013 soft drinks value sales = +8.77%; forecast to 2017 = +50.5%.
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +7.70%; forecast to 2017 = +46.1%.
- 2013 supermarket sales = +3.75%; forecast to 2017 = +26.5%.
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Investments In Food Security: In November 2012 the Qatar National Food Security Programme stated that it was looking to reduce the country's dependency of food imports by 60% by 2024. This will be achieved through a multi-billion dollar government funded food security program. The complex plan included building desalination plants, which will run on renewable energy, as well as projects to increase crop yields through improving the quality of the country's soil. For now, US$300mn has been invested in the project, but the overall project will involve a figure in the billions, with the government providing around 50% of the funding and the rest coming from the private sector.
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Report Published: "Qatar Food & Drink Report Q1 2013"
Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Qatar Food & Drink Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research