Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 08/08/2013 --Following a year in which BMI believes saw mixed growth dynamics across different freight modes, 2013 will signal further slowdown in growth in most - in line with Russia's economic growth forecast. Total trade is projected to increase at a slower pace with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y growth of 3.5% in 2013 following an increase of 5.4% in 2012.
There are still three key themes to watch in Russia's freight transport market in 2013, with each of them offering upside risk to our forecasts for this sector. The Russian government's privatisation drive will continue to roll on in 2013, with port stakes and rail freight units still to be auctioned off. On top of privatisation, in the rail freight sector specifically, we are seeing a consolidation of players with major mining and steel producing firms selling their transport subsidiaries and major private logistics players developing in Russia's rail freight system.
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The second theme we highlight in Russia's freight sector in 2013 is the impact the preparation for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games will have. All freight sectors are set to benefit, specifically those in the Krasnodar region.
The final theme is Russia's recent membership of the World Trade Organization. As President Vladimir Putin has highlighted the benefits of an uptick in trade volumes won't be felt straight away, but we believe Russia's freight transport sector will start to feel a positive impact over the medium term.
Headline Industry Data
- 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.0%
- 2013 Rail freight is forecast to decline by 3.0%
- 2013 Port of Novorossiysk throughput is forecast to decrease by 8.0%
- 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 2.0%
- 2013 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 2.0%
- 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast at 3.5%
Key Industry Trends
Pension Funds For Eastern Rail Growth: Russia's Far East is likely to become a major focus of investment in the coming years. Recent announcements to improve the rail infrastructure will help to support a trend of investment announcements to develop the resource-rich but economically weak region. The outlook for Russian rail infrastructure industry value already looks strong in terms of growth thanks to infrastructure investments surrounding major sporting events, with a forecasted real growth rate of 6.5% in 2013. The planned development of eastern Russia's rail network provides strong upside risk to our mediumterm outlook.
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Russia Freight Transport Report Q3 2013 - New Market Report
New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Russia Freight Transport Report Q3 2013"