Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 06/27/2013 --Thailand will maintain its status as a key Asian agricultural provider in the coming years, as the sector benefits from strong export opportunities and government support as well as an efficient foodproducing industry. The sugar and livestock sectors are especially promising; however, the government's interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will hinder the competitiveness of Thailand's production relative to its Asian rivals. Although rice farmers will directly gain from the rice guarantee buyback programme, we are uncertain about the long-term effectiveness of these policies in enhancing Thailand's food-producing efficiency and in boosting the country's export competitiveness. Thailand will remain a key rice exporter but may lose out to secondary exporters owing to growing instability in its trade policy.
Key Forecasts
- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 20.9% to 1.9mn tonnes. This growth will largely be due to increased private investment in the sector. The lift of an eight-year EU ban on uncooked imports in April 2012 will allow imports of Thai-produced poultry and other food products and give the industry more impetus to expand production.
- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 15.8% to 11.8mn tonnes. This will be driven mainly by strong sugar cane yield improvements, improved sugar recovery from cane and strong export opportunities.
- Rice consumption growth to 2016/17: 7.3% to 11.2mn tonnes. Rice will remain the staple food for Thais, and there is little opportunity for substitution. Thai consumers are more likely to cut non-essential items such as meat and soft drinks when economic times are tough.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 22.2mn in 2013 (growth to average 1.1% annually to between 2012 and 2017).
- Real GDP growth in 2013: 4.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) (down from 6.4% in 2012, forecast to average 4.6% between 2012 and 2017).
- Consumer price index in 2013: 2.9% average (down from 3.0% in 2012; forecast to average 2.7% between 2012 and 2017).
- Central bank policy rate end-2013: 2.75% (same than in 2012; forecast to average 2.75% between 2012 and 2017).
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Key Revisions To Forecasts
- Sugar 2012/13 production forecast revised down, to 9.4mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 9.6mn tonnes). Thai sugar supply prospects are deteriorating due to poor rains during the sugar cane growing season (June-July), followed by the recent slowdown in sugar cane crushing on the back of heavy rains.
- Rice 2012/13 production forecast revised down, to 20.4mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 20.7mn tonnes). Particularly dry weather in the north east region during the main crop growing season hampered yields and damaged planted area and limited acreage expansion of the secondary crop.
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Thailand Agribusiness Report Q3 2013 - New Study Released
Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Thailand Agribusiness Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research