Russia Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012 - New Market Report Now Available

New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Russia Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012"

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Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 06/28/2012 --BMI View: A high level of investment will be required to maintain Russian oil output at close to recent record levels, putting pressure on the domestic industry and hindering global expansion .Gazprom faces similar challenges in developing sufficient gas to meet European and, possibly, growing Asian demand. Revisions to the Russian tax and regulatory system will be required if Russia is to meet its targets.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Russia's Oil and Gas sector are:

- Russian oil production reached a post-soviet high of 10.29mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011, according to preliminary data from the country's energy ministry. This represented a rise of 0.4% month-onmonth (m-o-m). Production rose owing to the implementation of a new tax structure, which includes a reduction in export duties on crude and certain refined products. Duty on Russian oil exports has been cut by 4.3% to US$53.62 per barrel (bbl) from US$56.13 per bbl, according to a decree published in the Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper.
- Production from the Vankor field averaged 250,000b/d in 2010. Peak production capacity of 500,000b/d is expected by 2014. Lukoil has now brought into play its Yuri Korchagin field, one of the first to be developed in Russia's section of the Caspian Sea, with a peak capacity of 50,000b/d. TNKBP is pushing ahead with further development of the Uvat oil project in the Tyumen region of West Siberia. The company expects to reach peak output of around 220,000b/d in 2015-2016. BMI is assuming average Russian production of 10.29mn b/d in 2011, with scope for an increase to 10.61mn b/d by 2016. The economy ministry's latest long-term production forecast sees output stable at 10.60mn b/d in 2015-2020. However, we see output slipping from its 2016 peak to 10.36mn b/d by 2021.
- Beyond 2011, Russian oil consumption is expected to rise at an average rate of 3.08% per annum, much faster than supply expansion. Oil consumption, which is believed to have hit 3.12mn b/d in 2011, should therefore edge towards 3.60mn b/d by 2016 - providing export potential of 7mn b/d.
- With Russia having produced an estimated 630bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas in 2011, BMI's latest projections show output rising to 723bcm by 2016 - dependent on growth in European demand. Gas output rose 3.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 547bcm in January-October 2011, and was up 4.7% y-o-y at 56bcm in October 2011, according to RosBusinessConsulting, which refers to data released by the energy ministry. Gas exports climbed 9% y-o-y to 159bcm in the first 10 months of 2011, but slid 14.5% in October to 14bcm. BMI is anticipating gas exports of close to 200bcm by 2016, thanks to domestic consumption reaching almost 530bcm.

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