Market Report, "Turkey Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012", Published
New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Turkey Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012"
Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 07/20/2012 --Proving up Black Sea and Mediterranean deposits is a priority for Turkey, as this will enable it to reduce its dependence on imported fuel, particularly from Russia where pricing disputes are the order of the day. Turkey remains part of the gas transit equation, which gives it extra negotiating power when it comes to purchase agreements.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:
- Demand for gas will rise quickly as household and industrial use spreads, and additional gas-fired power stations are built. We are assuming 46.24bn cubic metres (bcm) of Turkish consumption by 2016. Practically all of this gas will be imported, although national oil company (NOC) Turkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)'s recent exploration success in the Black Sea could mean there are risks to the upside in terms of domestic supply, and risk to the downside in terms of imports.
- TPAO believes the Turkish sector of the Black sea holds oil and gas reserves of 10bn bbl and 1,500bcm, respectively. The company announced it will invest US$4bn in the Black Sea over the 2011-2013. The area is being explored by JVs between ExxonMobil, Chevron, Petrobras and TPAO. The ministry has announced it is aiming for commercial production in either 2015 or 2016. TPAO said in July 2011 that it intended to drill up to five ultra-deepwater Black Sea exploration wells by end- 2012.
- So far, all this investment has yielded little in the way of commercial reserves, and concerns that the Black Sea's prospectivity may be overrated have affected the Russian section: Chevron abandoned its Russian Black Sea block in June 2011. However, the 42-84bcm deepwater gas discovery made by Austria's OMV and Exxon in Romania's sector (and announced on February 22 2012) suggests potential prospectivity in the region is not to be dismissed.
- Beyond the Black Sea, Turkey is also considering exploration in the booming Eastern Mediterranean upstream, particularly for gas. On November 23 2011, Royal Dutch Shell signed a deal with TPAO to search for offshore oil and gas in the Mediterranean and onshore in the country's south-east region. Prior to that, TPAO announced it was planning to re-enter a Mediterranean well abandoned by ExxonMobil in the 1980s, where it believes there could be as much as 25mn barrels (bbl) of oil. Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said in February 2012 that about 10 international companies had made applications to undertake exploration off Mersin. Citing unnamed Energy Ministry officials, Bloomberg reported that companies interested in Turkey's Eastern Mediterranean frontier included BP, Total, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Genel Energy, OMV, Perenco and RWE.
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