New Healthcare market report from Business Monitor International: "Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2012"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 12/05/2012 --BMI View: We continue to view Estonia as a low-potential market, largely on account of its small - and gradually declining - population. Short-term development of its pharmaceutical market will be shaped by the factors including prevailing economic conditions, patent expirations and government encouragement of the consumption of cheaper generic medicine. We expect imports to remain of crucial importance to market supply, with Estonia lacking a major domestic drug producer and with local research and development (R&D) conducted on a small scale.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: EUR240mn (US$334mn) in 2011 to EUR253mn (US$322mn) in 2012; +5.6% in local currency terms and -3.5% in US dollar terms. US forecast unchanged from Q312.
- Healthcare: EUR909mn (US$1.26bn) in 2011 to EUR945mn (US$1.20bn) in 2012; +3.9% in local currency terms and -5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly down from Q312 on account of tightening fiscal conditions.
- Medical devices: EUR97mn (US$134mn) in 2011 to EUR101mn (US$128mn) in 2012; +4.2% in local currency terms and -4.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly down from Q312 due to worsening macroeconomic conditions and reassessment of historical data.

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Risk/Reward Ratings: In our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q412 - out of the 20 key markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Estonia remains in 12th place, to which it fell from ninth in the previous quarter. Its composite score continued to fall, and now stands at 51.2 out of the maximum 100, on a par with the regional average. With a score of just 30 for the quarter, Estonia's industry rewards remain considered the weakest part of its pharmaceutical profile.

Key Trends And Developments

- The renovation of Haapsalu Neurological Rehabilitation Centre, a key rehabilitation centre in Estonia, started in May 2012, with a significant amount of support from the European Regional Development Fund. The EUR4mn (US$5.2mn) project, which is expected to be completed by 2014, includes the construction of an extra floor for the building to allow a research centre for neurological research studies.

BMI Economic View: Estonia's economic growth will slow in real GDP terms, from 7.6% in 2011. While the country's economic growth rate ill, nevertheless, remain the strongest figure in the eurozone, the economy is not immune from the weakened external demand in the bloc, which we expect to contract this year. A high degree of uncertainty over the future of eurozone economic growth will feed through to lower private consumption and investment growth, both of which have been integral drivers of economic recovery in the Baltic country. Lower revenues will preclude major investment in healthcare facilities.

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