New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 12/07/2012 --BMI View: The outlook for Peru's energy sector is improving rapidly. Oil and natural gas production are forecast to rise at breakneck speed through to 2016, and sustain elevated production levels until the end of our 10-year forecast period. There is considerable upside potential to our forecasts as well, on the back of new production and discoveries, as well as an increasingly attractive business environment. The country is not risk-free, however, with relations with indigenous communities sitting firmly at the top of the list.

The main trends and developments we highlight in the Peruvian oil and gas sector are:

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- 2013 will be Peru's last as an oil importer, with our forecasts suggesting imports of just 16,000 barrels per day (b/d). In 2014, the country will have a (theoretical) export capacity of approximately 37,400b/d, representing the beginning of a steep rise culminating in a peak of 128,780b/d in 2016. However, in order to sustain export levels above 100,000b/d through and beyond our forecast period ending in 2021, additional successful production will be required. The fact that it is largely underexplored presents solid upside risks to its reserves forecast. Strong economic growth is expected to see consumption rise from 201,480b/d to 222,390b/d between 2012 and 2016.
- The outlook for the country's gas sector is similarly bright. Gas production is forecast to jump from an estimated 9.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 13.0bcm in 2016. Gas consumption, meanwhile, is expected to grow steadily, rising from 6.37bcm in 2012 to 8.19bcm by 2016. The gas export potential therefore increases to 4.81bcm, with scope for a further rise to 5.74bcm by 2021.
- By 2016, Peru's oil and gas exports are set to yield some US$6.61bn as oil import volumes of an estimated 35,310b/d in 2012 are transformed into potential net exports of 128,780b/d in 2016. Thereafter, the higher rate of oil consumption relative to production growth will see export revenues fall towards US$5.67bn by 2021, corresponding to a decline in oil exports. The country will remain a significant exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) throughout the forecast period. We forecast that 2011 LNG exports of 1.55bcm will increase to 4.81bcm in 2016 and 5.74bcm in 2021.
- National oil company Petroperu had previously announced plans to list 20% of its stock on the Lima bourse in the second half of 2012, although at the time of writing no announcement had been made. The company had also announced a desire to resume oil production for the first time since the 1990s. Both of these initiatives are part of a larger goal to have the company much more closely resemble Brazil's Petrobras and Colombia's Ecopetrol, as well as to increase the overall level of investment in the oil industry.

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