Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Philippines Agribusiness Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 12/19/2012 --BMI View: Increased government focus on the agriculture sector resulted in incremental gains in the sector for the first half of 2012. Overall, the industry grew by 1.0% in H112, with the poultry segment leading the way with 5.5% growth, crops posting 1.5% growth and livestock 0.5%. With continued intervention from the Department of Agriculture through distribution of quality seeds and improving irrigation across the country, BMI believes that the grains sector will stand to benefit the most from government support going forward.

Key Forecasts

- Rice production growth to 2015/16: 11.0% to 11.7mn tonnes. The government is instituting measures to boost rice self-sufficiency. These include a moratorium on the sale of rice fields to promote other agricultural uses, the provision of fertiliser discount coupons and attempts to boost crop yields through the use of genetically modified seeds.
- Sugar production growth to 2016: 21.7% to 2.8mn tonnes. The Philippines does not allow sugar to be traded due to the unique quedan system (essentially a market sharing arrangement), meaning the country is likely to be able to prevent domestic shortages in the wake of production increases.
- Poultry production growth to 2015/16: 14.3% to 868,300 tonnes. Increased government protection for the livestock industry and private-sector-led efficiency improvements are expected to boost production.
- 2012 real GDP growth: 4.3% (from 3.7% in 2011; predicted to average 4.0% over 2011-2016).
- 2012 consumer price inflation: 4.4% (from 3.8% y-o-y in 2011; predicted to average 4.0% over 2011-2016).
- 2012 central bank policy rate: 3.75% (from 4.5% in 2011; predicted to average 4.0% over 2011-2016).

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Industry Developments

With corn prices hitting the roof in recent months, the Philippine Maize Federation has expressed interest in exporting as much as 400,000 tonnes of the grain to meet global demand. However, the National Food Authority has stated that exports are only permitted if there is a surplus in production - a rare occurrence in the Philippines. A technical working group was formed in August to study the export proposal, and a decision is set to be finalised in later months.

The Philippines' plans to start early exports of sugar to the United States in 2011/12 was postponed slightly from December to January due to a smaller than expected surplus, according to reports from the Sugar Regulatory Administration. Under the early export program, the Philippines typically begins sugar shipments in September. Given the strong production prospects for sugar in 2011/12, we continue to expect strong exports out of the Philippines for the new season.

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