New Market Study Published: Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 12/27/2012 --BMI View: According to the agriculture ministry, Bangladesh loses about 80,000 hectares of arable land owing to the impact of climate change, such as through droughts, salinity and floods. Indeed, we view Bangladesh's extreme weather as a major risk to our outlook for the country's agriculture sector. In fact, as crop cultivation is gradually pushed southward due to climate changes, a key factor for survival will be adapting crop varieties to different cultivation environments.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 40.9% to 1.6mn tonnes. The main driver is an improvement in yields. We note that in Bangladesh, wheat cultivation remains a preferred option for non-irrigated land given the low farm input use (fertiliser, insecticides and labour).
- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: -45.6% to 68,000 tonnes by 2016/17. With farmers increasingly planting more profitable cash crops such as cotton, we do not foresee the trend of declining sugar production to reverse any time soon.
- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 17.2% to 232,000 tonnes. Better economic conditions and higher disposable incomes will help to drive demand for meat. Better disease control is also expected to support the recovery of the sector.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 6.6%, from 4.9% in 2012. Predicted to average 6.3% from 2012 to 2017.
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 5.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) average, from 10.8% y-o-y in 2012. Predicted to average 6.4% from 2012 to 2017.
- 2013 real lending rates: 7.8% average, from 2.8% in 2012. Predicted to average 6.0% from 2012 to 2017.

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Key Developments

The International Rice Research Institute has recently found that large quantities of Bangladesh-grown rice have higher-than-usual levels of arsenic, as there are many parts of Bangladesh where water with high arsenic levels is used in rice cultivation. Through breeding new rice varieties and helping farmers to adopt improved crop management strategies, the International Rice Research Institute is working with farmers on the ground in developing rice production techniques that reduce arsenic intake.

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