Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Vietnam Shipping Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 01/11/2013 --The problems currently experienced at Vinalines are indicative of a deeper malaise in the Vietnamese shipping sector. State-owned shipbuilder Vinashin was bailed out in 2010 when its US$4.5bn debt threatened to bring down the entire Vietnamese economy. Vietnam's shipping sector has suffered from a number of factors, including antiquated infrastructure, a byzantine bureaucracy, inflation, a trade deficit and a weak currency.

That said, both the port of Ho Chi Minh and the port of Da Nang are riding the global economic headwinds for the time being at least, with strong growth set to occur over the forecast period to 2017. This is set to continue in the medium term to 2017 and there are hopes that the so-called 'factory of Asia', as Vietnam has become known, will continue to see export potential buoy the shipping sector. Ho Chi Minh City's tonnage throughput growth between 2013 and 2017 is set to beat the Port of Da Nang's, while the latter will see more impressive box throughput growth over this period.

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Vietnam's economy remains on track for a robust recovery in 2013, and we view consensus estimates on growth as being overly pessimistic. The latest credit downgrade by rating agency Moody's Investors Service has failed to surprise the bond markets and we believe that this is because concerns over the build up of bad debt in the banking sector have long been priced by investors. Furthermore, latest economic indicators also support our view that economic conditions in Vietnam are improving and we are maintaining our view that real GDP growth will come in strong at 7.0% in 2013.

Headline Industry Data

- 2013 tonnage throughput at the Port of Ho Chi Minh City is forecast to grow 7.56% to 38.75mn tonnes.
- 2013 tonnage throughput at the Port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 4.33% to 4.16mn tonnes.
- 2013 container throughput at the Port of Ho Chi Minh City is forecast to rise 8.03% to 3.48mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- 2013 container throughput at the Port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 10.54% to 133,366TEUs.
- 2013 total trade real growth is forecast to increase 5.70%.

Key Industry Trends

Vinalines' Woes Continue

Vietnam National Shipping Lines' (Vinalines) losses in H112 are largely attributable to internal problems of corruption and financial mismanagement, in our opinion. While the shipping industry has suffered from the twin factors of depressed rates and low demand in 2012, Vinalines' heavy exposure to Vietnam's domestic transport sector, which has been performing well recently, indicates that the firm's struggles go beyond the troubles facing the global industry.

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