New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "United States Autos Report Q4 2012"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 01/26/2013 --BMI has revised its forecast for US vehicle production upward to growth of 20% year-on-year (y-o-y) for 2012, with a further upward revision for 2013 to a rise of 7%, as new assembly lines come onstream. While much of the growth in 2012 is the result of Japanese brands replenishing their inventories after the natural disasters of 2011, the fruits of investment by the three domestic brands and other international brands alike are also contributing.

The passenger car segment will be the outperformer in terms of output growth in 2012, reflecting the importance of a recovery by Japanese brands. Toyota Motor and Honda Motor have both achieved record levels of North American production, with growth of more than 60% y-o-y each over the first eight months of the year. By the end of the year, we expect total US car production to be 38% higher y-o-y, while light truck production will be up 10% y-o-y. Heavy truck output is also expected to edge closer to its pre-crisis levels, with 25% growth taking segment production to nearly 300,000 units.

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So far sales results have supported our production views for 2012. In the first nine months of 2012, the passenger car segment still has the edge in growth terms, with light truck sales up 9.6%, compared with growth of 19.5% for car sales over the period. This is a slightly less pronounced gap than that earlier in the year, and reflects the stabilisation of car growth as the supply chain returns to normal after the disruption caused by the Japanese natural disasters of 2011. While improved supplies of Japanese cars have contributed to growth, higher fuel prices are also pushing consumers toward more fuel-efficient models and companies with the product range to accommodate this have clearly benefitted.

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