New Consumer Goods market report from Business Monitor International: "Egypt Tourism Report Q1 2013"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 02/18/2013 --The Egypt Tourism Report looks at the prospects for the tourism sector through to 2017, while considering important issues facing the sector in the short term. Assuming outbreaks of large-scale unrest gradually decrease in frequency, after the political unrest that rocked Egypt in 2011, a strong recovery in the sector was expected for 2012, partly due to the impact of the low base effects.

The report analyses the major source markets, which are predominantly European, highlighting the risks associated with an economic downturn in the eurozone. However, tourism from the Middle East, which accounted for around 15% of total arrivals in 2011, has generally been more resilient since political unrest engulfed the country.

The recovery in foreign tourism continued apace in the first eight months of 2012, according to figures from the Ministry of Tourism, with tourist arrivals totalling some 7.3mn, an increase of more than 20% year-on-year (y-o-y). In the three-month period from May to July, however, there was a slowdown in the recovery - coinciding with the mid-year presidential elections. In August there was a slight pick-up in growth, mainly due to a substantial recovery in visitors from the Middle East. In aggregate, over the period January to August, visitors from Europe and the Middle East increased by 23% and 34% respectively. Putting the recovery in context, however, total arrivals were still down 22% compared with the same period in 2010.

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Hospitality sector figures show a solid 30% y-o-y increase in total tourist nights in hotels in the Janury- August period of 2012. Disaggregated data for the period show European tourist nights rose by 37% y-oy, while nights spent by Middle Eastern tourists were up 32%.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

- BMI has slightly lowered the annual growth forecast for foreign arrivals to Egypt in 2012 to 23%. Over the remainder of the extended forecast period to 2017, growth forecasts remain unchanged.
- BMI's real GDP growth forecasts for the eurozone - the key source region for inbound tourism - have been lowered marginally for 2012 to -0.7% from -0.6%, rising to only 0.6% growth (down from 0.9%) in 2013. Yet economic growth in the most important source market, Russia, as well as in the Middle East and North Africa, is expected to remain relatively robust over the same period - this should help counteract a weak growth scenario in the eurozone.
- BMI has tempered its short-term outlook for the Egyptian pound but still believes further depreciation for the currency is on the cards (providing a boost to the tourism sector).

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