Fast Market Research recommends "Estonia Shipping Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 02/23/2013 --BMI View: Port Of Tallinn Back On Moderate Growth Path

We have trimmed back our GDP growth projections for Estonia in 2012 and 2013, to reflect the ongoing troubles of the eurozone. BMI now expects the economy to grow by 2.4% in 2012 and 3.0% in 2013 - both these numbers are a few decimals of a percentage point lower than our earlier projections. However, we are confident that the medium-term outlook is good, based on the resilience of consumer demand, the country's low debt ratios, and its trade links to northern Europe and the Scandinavian economies. We expect total foreign trade (imports + exports) to grow by a healthy 6.1% in 2013.

Within the ports and shipping sector, competition from the new Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga has taken significant bulk cargo business away from Estonia's Port of Tallinn. We estimate that throughput will have fallen by 16% in 2012, and are projecting a small increase in 2013. On the other hand, container activity levels have been lifted by the growth of transit trade in other commodities and manufactured products, and by the resilience of imports.

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Headline Industry Data

- Port of Tallinn gross tonnage set to grow by 1.3% to 31.039mn tonnes in 2013, following a 16.0% fall in 2012.
- Box traffic at Tallinn to grow by 7.7% to 257,646 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2013, down from 21.0% growth in 2012.
- Estonian foreign trade to gain 6.1% in real terms in 2013, after 7.6% growth in 2012.
- Import growth will lead with 6.4% expansion, ahead of exports, which will be up by 5.8%.

Key Industry Trends

Industry Seriously Worried Over Waterway Tolls

Local shipping and port operators were expressing growing concerns over government plans to consolidate and increase waterway toll charges from 2013 onwards. Proposed legislation would raise charges to cover a range of investment costs, including safety and environmental provisions. The Association of Estonian Ports warned that total fees for marine shipping could rise by between 14% and 60%, while others suggested charges may more than double. 'This affects cruise ships, cargo and fuel, because cargo is often cost sensitive. There is the choice of whether to ship through Estonia or through Latvia,' said Viktor Palmet, president of the Association.

Competition From Russia's Ust-Luga Continues To Bite

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