Fast Market Research recommends "Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 02/27/2013 --BMI View: With shale gas exploration now unlikely until beyond 2014 thanks to government and public concerns, the Czech Republic is going to remain highly dependent on imported fuel, as conventional hydrocarbons potential is limited. Demand trends are not particularly strong, but recent refinery disruptions show that the domestic fuels market is in a precarious state of balance.

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Czech Republic's oil and gas sector are:

- Plans to freeze shale gas exploration for two years to allow the government to draft and implement new legislation have found plenty of support, meaning that drilling activity is unlikely until beyond 2014. The ministry aims to establish a clear legal and technical framework so that any disputes that arise during shale gas exploration can be resolved under sound arbitration procedures, according to Environment Minister Tomas Chalupa. Several domestic and foreign companies had earlier applied for shale gas exploration permits, including the UK's Cuadrilla Resources and Basgas Energia Czech, a unit of Australia-based Basgas. Domestic upstream company MND has also applied for an exploration permit.
- Consumption of natural gas fell during 2011, dampened by a decline in manufacturing and warm weather. However, the fuel is finding increased residential/commercial use and may displace coal in future power generation projects. BMI is assuming that overall demand will rise from an estimated 8.8bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to around 10.1bcm by 2016, then reach 11.0bcm by 2021. Carpathian Resources has identified potentially gas-bearing structures for future drilling; however, we do not expect to see domestic gas production rise above 0.2bcm over the medium term.
- German utility RWE has reportedly received preliminary bids from four groups for its Czech gas transmission system operator Net4Gas. The named bidders are Czech financial group KKCG, Macquarie, a consortium of German insurer Allianz and Borealis Infrastructure Management and a consortium of Energeticky a Prumyslovy Holding (EPH), Global Infrastructure Partners and Fluxys. Net4Gas operates a 2,500 kilometre (km) Czech gas pipeline. The divestment forms part of RWE's broader aim to sell up to EUR7bn of assets by the end of 2013.
- In 2013, BMI forecasts the Czech Republic will consume 198,200 barrels per day (b/d) of oil. Using our current GDP growth forecasts, it is unlikely that medium-term oil demand will increase dramatically. Assuming an average rise in consumption of no more than 1.5% per annum, below the CEE norm, demand will reach 210,700b/d in 2016, then 226,500b/d by 2021 - implying end-period imports of around 217,700b/d.

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