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Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 03/01/2013 --Core Views

We anticipate Estonia's economic recovery to persevere in 2013 driven primarily by consumer and investment spending. Moreover, a recovery in Estonia's exporting sector will result in a less-negative drag on headline growth than in 2012.

We maintain a positive view towards Estonia's fiscal trajectory. Stronger economic growth, which will boost revenues and help shrink the deficit as a proportion of GDP, will be key to the narrowing shortfall. Meanwhile, public debt is set to increase on the back of eurozone bailout fund contributions. However, Estonia's debt burden will remain well below other EU member states.

Popular support for Estonia's Reform Party, the majority coalition party, is likely to fall further as a result of an alleged party financing fraud. While the pro-Russian Centre Party will remain popular amongst the ethnically Russian electorate, we see little scope for its inclusion in a potential re-shuffling of the coalition given deep ethnic political divides.

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