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Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 03/04/2013 --Core Views

We forecast Irish real GDP growth to be 0.4% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2014, as suppressed European demand for Irish exports and an intensification of the government's fiscal austerity programme weighs on the country's prospects for a strong economic recovery.

With a commitment to reducing Ireland's fiscal budget deficit from 9.9% of GDP in 2011 to 3.0% in 2015, we expect the impacts of the government's fiscal austerity drive to intensify in 2013. However, the degree of fiscal consolidation will be insufficient to prevent Irish government debt reaching over 120% of GDP in 2015.

Fiscal austerity measures and bleak economic conditions will result in an uptick in political unrest in 2013, as Irish voters become increasing disillusioned with the Fin Gael/Labour governing coalition. While we expect Ireland to remain on the consolidation path set out by the EU/IMF, we believe increased political conflicts will make the task increasingly challenging over the next few quarters.

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