New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Bahrain Retail Report Q1 2013"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 03/07/2013 --Executive Summary

The Bahrain Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Bahrain's economic outlook of the ongoing political crisis. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Bahrain retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the downturn in fixed investment on the Bahraini consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Bahrain retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Bahrain per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 23.4% through to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of -2.7%. The country comes sixth out of seven in BMI's Middle East and Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly for Risk.

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Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail will be the outperformer between 2013 and 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by nearly 33%, , from US$1.24bn to US$1.65bn, as demand for packaged and convenience foods continues to pick up on the back of busier lifestyles and more Westernised eating habits.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in Bahrain's business-friendly regulatory environment, which has succeeded in attracting a number of multinational food companies.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- BMI forecasts real GDP growth of 3.2% in 2013, compared with an estimated 3.0% in 2012, as the Bahraini economy slowly regains its footing. Beyond 2013, we are projecting an average rate of growth of 4.9% through to 2017.
- BMI forecasts that household consumption will continue expanding at a relatively steady clip over the coming quarters, supported by low interest rates and the uptick in government spending. Indeed, despite Manama's limited space to manoeuvre on the fiscal front, we cannot rule out another round of wage hikes. According to data from the central bank, credit growth also continues to expand by double digits, albeit at a gradually declining pace.

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