Fast Market Research recommends "Venezuela Freight Transport Report 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 03/14/2013 --BMI View: A Year of Slow Growth

We forecast real GDP growth of 2.2% in Venezuela in 2013. Our GDP forecasts remain under 3.0% per year throughout our five-year forecast period. BMI's negative macro outlook for Venezuela feeds into our view on the country's freight transport sector, which continues to be bearish, due to concerns about lack of import demand, and slowing oil exports.

In particular, the chronic mismanagement of the country's port facilities since they were nationalised in 2009 has damaged their international reputation and their profit-making abilities. We do not expect any significant recouping of lost throughput levels over the medium term. Over a longer period, investments from China could see the facilities begin to regain some of their former glory.

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On the downside, however, a possible economic slowdown in China, a close trading partner of Venezuela, could negatively affect the country's freight transport volumes. Over the 2013-2017 forecast period growth will average only 2.5% per annum, well below the country's real potential. By transport modes, air freight will lead the way, followed by shipping (Venezuela lacks reliable data on rail freight and road haulage volumes). BMI does not expect any transport mode to see volume growth exceeding 4.0%, however.

Headline Industry Data

- Air freight volume carried in 2013 will expand by 7.2% to 6.2mn tonnes-km, with average growth of 5.8% to 2017.
- 2013 Puerto Cabello tonnage throughput growth forecast at 1.9%. Slow growth is expected to continue over the medium term, averaging 1.6% to 2017.
- 2013 Puerto Cabello container throughput to grow by 4.3%, and forecast to average 3.9% over our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Freight Transport Network Underdeveloped, Chinese Investments To Alleviate Problem Venezuela's freight transport network continues to struggle with poor infrastructure and badly managed facilities, which limit the volumes which can be carried, and discourage international companies from operating there. In 2012, there was some movement from the Venezuelan government towards improving the state of the country's neglected ports, an effort which could be helped by Chinese investment. The Asian Dragon has become a regular investor in Venezuelan freight transport projects, as part of its wider efforts to help revive Venezuela's mining sector. BMI believes that the involvement of Chinese firms in the development of the Venezuelan transport network will ensure that demand for Venezuelan iron ore exports remains robust, thereby helping it to secure access to a huge and growing trading partner. Furthermore, the involvement of China will facilitate much-needed transport network improvements.

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