New Market Report Now Available: Lithuania Business Forecast Report Q2 2013
New Country Reports research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 03/15/2013 --Core Views
The parliamentary motion to lift the immunity of several key members of Lithuania's governing coalition in December was an important step to consolidating the new centre-left government's political credibility. However, major challenges remain, such as a still struggling economy and overly ambitious budget projections, which will crimp the government's ability to materially improve the country's living standards.
We are reaffirmed in our belief that the Lithuanian economy will enjoy only a gradual, drawn-out recovery at best over the coming years. Although there have been some encouraging signs that construction activity may be on the road to improvement, still weak demand and a struggling eurozone economy do not bode well for a sharp pick-up in Lithuanian growth for the foreseeable future.
Lithuania's fiscal dynamics point to a continued shrinking of the fiscal deficit over the coming years. However, while we acknowledge that the rate of fiscal deficit reduction in the near term may occur fast than we currently anticipate, we believe that looser fiscal policy over the course of 2013 and 2014 cannot be ruled out entirely, with the new centre-left coalition government under pressure to improve living standards in the country.
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Major Forecast Changes
We have moderately revised our current account deficit forecast for 2013 to 2.0% of GDP from 2.1% of GDP previously.
Risks To Outlook
In the near term, we believe that the main risk stems from overestimating gross fixed capital formation growth, which disappointed in Q312, while exports of goods and services may outpace import growth by some margin. Any indication of stronger export growth would have a sizeable impact on our real GDP growth projection, placing Lithuania's economic activity more closely in line with the government's expectations of 3.0% growth in 2013.
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