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Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 03/19/2013 --BMI View: Petroperu remains on course to resume upstream activity after decades on the sidelines. The timing is right for the state-owned company to regain a slice of domestic oil and gas production, as we forecast both will rise rapidly over the next few years, and will remain elevated through to the end of our forecast period in 2021. The underexplored nature of the energy sector, combined with an increasingly attractive business environment for foreign investment, creates further upside risk to our forecasts. It also supports our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economics in Latin America over the forecast period. The country is not risk-free, however, with relations with indigenous communities sitting firmly at the top of the list of concerns.

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The main trends and developments we highlight in the Peruvian oil and gas sector are:

- 2013 will be Peru's last year as an oil importer, with our forecasts suggesting imports of just 16,000 barrels per day (b/d). In 2014, the country will have a (theoretical) export capacity of approximately 37,400b/d, representing the beginning of a steep rise culminating in a peak of 128,780b/d in 2016. However, in order to sustain export levels above 100,000b/d through and beyond our forecast period ending in 2021, additional successful production will be required. The fact that it is largely unexplored presents solid upside risks to its reserves forecast. Strong economic growth should help drive an increase in consumption from 201,480b/d to 226,840b/d between 2012 and 2017.
- The outlook for the country's gas sector is similarly bright. Gas production is forecast to jump from an estimated 9.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 13.5bcm in 2017. Gas consumption, meanwhile, is expected to grow steadily, rising from 6.4bcm in 2012 to 8.6bcm by 2017. The gas export potential therefore increases to 4.81bcm, with scope for a further rise to 5.74bcm by 2021.
- By 2017, Peru's oil and gas exports are set to yield some US$6.34bn as oil import volumes of an estimated 35,310b/d in 2012 are transformed into potential net exports of 128,780b/d in 2016, although they begin to fall in 2017 to 119,333b/d. Thereafter, the higher rate of oil consumption relative to production growth will see export revenues fall towards US$5.67bn by 2021, corresponding to a decline in oil exports. The country will remain a significant exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) throughout the forecast period. We forecast that 2011 LNG exports of 1.55bcm will increase to 4.9bcm in 2017 and 5.74bcm in 2021.

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