New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 03/21/2013 --BMI View: Nigeria's agricultural sector has suffered from years of underinvestment and official neglect, inertia and corruption, but there are some positive signs of a longer term recovery. The cocoa, sugar, grains and livestock sectors are beginning to see more support both in terms of investment and in some cases from a government bent on reducing imports to reduce foreign exchange outgoings. The country is a massive importer of sugar, rice and wheat: the first two of which could reasonably be produced in greater quantities, although import tariffs may not be the most efficient way of achieving such improvements. The livestock sectors should continue to develop alongside increasing GDP growth, although most producers remain small-scale.

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Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 61.7% to 105,100 tonnes. Increased private sector investment as well as increasingly punitive tariffs on imports will provide the fundamentals for the pace of recovery in the sector to pick up.
- Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 57.6% to 331,000 tonnes. Increased investment and the distribution of more resilient hybrid pods will spur the sector's revival.
- Rice consumption growth to 2016/17: 28.2% to 6.7mn tonnes. Tariff hikes imposed by the government are unlikely to have the desired effect as lower prices in the global market will combine with higher incomes to sustain steady growth in consumption of mostly imported rice.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease to US$7.5bn in 2012/13, forecast to grow on average 2.5% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.
- Real GDP growth 2013: 6.8% y-o-y, up from 6.6% in 2012.
- Unemployment rate 2013: 23.6% (down from 24.4% in 2012).
- Inflation (annual average, % chg y-o-y) 2013: 10.5% (down from 12.2% in 2012).

Key Revisions To Forecasts

- Rice consumption forecast for 2013 revised up, to 6mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 5.4mn tonnes). Lower prices for imports will add further impetus to Nigeria's growing demand for rice. - Cocoa production forecast for 2012/13 revised down, to 200,000 tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 230,000 tonnes). Black pod disease and flooding have made a bad situation worse.

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