Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Algeria Oil & Gas Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 04/15/2013 --Adoption of new hydrocarbons regulation in January 2013 could spur exploration in Algeria in the coming year, especially in offshore and unconventional acreages. We are nonetheless sceptical about the tax reform, which could prove burdensome for oil and gas producers. The next short-term challenge for Algeria will be to alleviate the security concerns created by the In Amenas attack.

The key trends and developments in Algeria's oil & gas sector are:

- There were three main developments in Algeria's hydrocarbons sector over the past quarter. Firstly, the In Amenas plant and Ain Chikh pipeline attack. Secondly, the adoption of the 2013 Hydrocarbon law, revamping the production tax system, state ownership and exploration incentives. Finally, the start up of gas production at Eni-operated Menzel Ledjmet Est.
- The Algerian Parliament in January 2013 approved a new national hydrocarbons law that reforms some of the more unwelcome policies that were established in 2005. We believe that while it creates strong exploration incentives, the new production tax regime remains unclear and burdensome, and could deter some companies from entering the market. Additionally, increased state ownership, especially in downstream and midstream, is creating further uncertainty for investors.
- Terrorist attacks, in particular at BP's In Amenas gas plant, are creating security concerns for investors, further fuelled by the armed conflict in neighbouring Mali. Most likely, these events will push state hydrocarbons regulator ALNAFT to postpone the long-expected offshore licensing round in order to wait for improved investor sentiment.
- We forecast that oil production will rise from an estimated 1.845mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to 1.901mn b/d in 2016 as ambitious new projects, mostly located in the Berkine basin, come onstream. Production will steadily decline afterward to reach around 1.860mn b/d in 2020.
- Consumption of crude is forecast to rise steadily between 2012 and 2022. This is partly in line with the expected GDP growth rate. We anticipate that crude consumption will rise from an estimated 417,100b/d in 2012 to 569,700b/d by 2022.
- We forecast that gas production will increase from an estimated 84.4bcm in 2012 to 107bcm by 2022 as ambitious new projects, mostly located in the Ahnet, Berkine and Illizi basins, come onstream. Production will be further boosted by increased output at major fields such as Hassi R'Mel and by enhanced recovery rates at the In Salah Gas Project.
- Gas demand is set to rise steadily on the back of solid economic growth. BMI forecasts average annual growth of 5.36% to 2021, with consumption forecast to rise from an estimated 30.3bcm in 2012 to 52.3bcm in 2022.

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