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Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 05/17/2013 --Indonesia Macroeconomic Outlook Edged Up

Since our last quarterly freight report, we have become more optimistic about Indonesia's macro-economic outlook in 2013. With the US, Europe, and China looking at economic rebounds of differing intensities, the external environment has become more favourable. After a tough year in 2012 the global mining industry is looking more upbeat, with key metal commodity prices likely to improve. While we had expected mining investment to take a hit in 2013, we now think it will be quite resilient. Although we are concerned over Indonesia's increasingly protectionist stance on mining (it plans to ban unprocessed mineral exports in 2014 as a way of ensuring that more value-added refining and processing remains within the country) this is not yet making a serious dent in FDI inflows. Bearing these factors in mind, we now forecast that after 6.2% growth in 2012, Indonesian GDP will advance by a further 6.1% in 2013 (higher than our previous forecast of 5.6%). In fact, over the next five years annual GDP growth is set to average 6.4%, confirming the country's status as one of the top performers in Asia.

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The growth outlook for Indonesia's freight sector is encouraging, particularly because there are signs that one of its key problems, an infrastructure investment deficit, is beginning to be tackled. Capacity problems remain an issue, but new investment projects in ports, airports, road, and rail are being launched.

Headline Industry Data

- Air freight volumes are forecast to grow by 6.7% in 2013, with average annual growth of 6.8% during our forecast period to 2017.
- Rail freight volumes are estimated to rise by 6.2% in 2013, with average growth of 7.1% during our forecast period.
- Tanjung Priok total tonnage growth forecast for 2013 is 4.4% to 50.226mn tonnes, with average growth of 5.5% expected over our forecast period to 2017.
- Tonnage at the Port of Palembang is set to grow by 3.0% in 2013 to reach 11.260mn tonnes; average growth to 2017 will come in at 3.9% per annum.
- We expect the total value of Indonesian trade to grow by 6.4% in real terms in 2013, compared to an estimated 3.5% in 2012.

Key Industry Trends

Indonesian Postal Service Makes Big Move Into Logistics

PT Pos Indonesia, the state-owned postal service, is making a big move into logistics through an agreement with the privately-owned domestic airline, PT Merpati Nusantara Airlines (Merpati). Pos Indonesia president director I Ketut Mardjana said that the state-owned firm expected to increase revenues from logistics services to IDR450bn (US$46.35mn) this year, up from IDR60bn in 2012.

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