New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Iraq Oil & Gas Report Q2 2013"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 05/21/2013 --Although Iraq is set to lead oil production growth in the Middle East region, a number of above ground risks and uncertainty about projects in the pipeline results in widely varied forecasts. Although Iraq benefits from large reserve s of both oil and gas, political, security, regulatory and infrastructure challenges undermine the country's below-ground potential and contribute to uncertainty in forecasting. With exports from the KRG offline at the time of writing, unattractive fiscal terms and a perceived better operating environment in the north better operating environment continue to support an exodus of foreign oil companies from fields in the south.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:

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- While low lifting costs, large reserves, and ease of production from large onshore fields reduces the below ground risks associated with Iraq's upstream, unappealing licensing terms, regulatory uncertainty and ongoing security concerns continue to undermine the post-war oil industry. Baghdad's last licensing round drew just three successful bids. Without improved terms and increased international oil company (IOC) interest, Iraqi oil production will remain well below potential.
- Our forecast is for bullish growth in oil output, underscoring the country's substantial hydrocarbon potential, however downside risks remain abundant. With both above and below ground challenges adding uncertainty to our outlook, project delays such as those at the Majnoon, downward revisions to production targets at major fields, or the exit of key IOC's from the south suggests that while Iraq's oil production will increase over the course of our forecast period, forecasting production will remain difficult.
- The announcement by Iraq's oil minister that Turkey will not allow pipelines to be built from the KRG without Baghdad's approval is a significant development and a blow to the outlook for Erbil's oil and gas sector. With exports from the north stalled and talks deadlocked, the latest news add uncertainty to a volatile mix of oil and politics that has upset the balance of power between Erbil, Baghdad and Ankara
- The dispute over payments to oil companies operating in Kurdistan led to a cut-off of exports via Baghdad-controlled pipelines since mid-December 2012 - the second time in a year. Since then, the KRG has increasingly used trucks to move crude across the border to Turkey. Volumes remain low, but are steadily trending upwards.

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