New Healthcare market report from Business Monitor International: "Venezuela Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q2 2013"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 05/27/2013 --BMI View: While Maduro has the advantage of being Chavez's hand-picked successor, meaning he is likely to rise to power, the Venezuelan government's healthcare policies are unlikely to deviate from their current course over the short-to-medium term. We therefore maintain our current forecast for the country's healthcare expenditure and pharmaceutical market growth. However, we caution that political and economic uncertainties in the wake of Chavez's death could rein in public spending and put further downward pressure on multinationals' already diminishing profits in Venezuela.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: VEB43.5bn (US$10.1bn) in 2012 to VEB53.4bn (US$8.8bn) in 2013; +22.8% in local currency terms and -13.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast down due to new macroeconomic information.
- Healthcare: VEB78.9bn (US$18.4bn) in 2012 to VEB99.7bn (US$16.3bn) in 2013; +26.4% in local currency terms and -11.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast down due to new macroeconomic data..

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Risk/Reward Rating

Venezuela's ranking in BMI's Americas RRR matrix has not changed, with the country remaining at the14th place in Q213. This is the case for all other countries in BMI's proprietary system, which ranks pharmaceutical markets according to their attractiveness to multinational drugmakers. A minor re-weighting of one of the RRR components is being implemented to improve the tool, and the adjusted scores for all markets will be published in the Q313 updates of the Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare reports. Venezuela's pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at double-digit rates through to 2022 in local currency terms, largely due to inflation. .

Key Trends And Developments

- On March 5 2013, the Venezuelan government reported the death of President Hugo Chavez died. This has not come as a surprise; Chavez was in ill health for some time, and we have been highlighting that his time in office was likely to come to an end soon. According to the constitution, a new presidential election must take place within 30 days. We expect Vice-President Nicolas Maduro to win, with former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles being the most likely candidate from the opposition coalition. Moreover, we anticipate Chavez's political legacy, which has undermined the private sector over the past decade, to continue under Maduro.
- The official fixed exchange rate was adjusted from VEB4.300/US$ to VEB6.300/US$ on February 8, making good BMI's long-held expectation of a devaluation of the Venezuelan bolivar.

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