Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Egypt Business Forecast Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 06/14/2013 --Core Views

The Egyptian economy is set to 'muddle through' 2013, with fixed investment and household consumption likely to remain particularly weak. Sporadic outbursts in public unrest and ongoing 'policy drift' will continue to undermine a more pronounced economic recovery.

Egypt will have little choice but to make more pronounced reforms to its domestic energy subsidy system. We do not expect any major reforms ahead of parliamentary elections in April however.

The combined impact of currency devaluation and hikes to domestic energy prices will push consumer price inflation back into the double digits by the end of the year.

Egypt's geopolitical importance will ensure that even if an IMF agreement is delayed for longer than expected, further foreign aid commitments will materialise over 2013. Western powers such as the US and EU have an interest in ensuring the North African country does not experience a more pronounced economic and political crisis.

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Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our outlook on the Egyptian pound, and now expect the currency to average EGP7.3000/US$ in 2013

In light of a further deterioration in the political environment, we have lowered our real GDP growth forecasts, and now project the economy expanding 2.6% and 3.6% in FY2012/13 and FY2013/14 respectively.

Key Risks To Outlook

A failure to secure external financing (whether through the IMF or bilateral aid) raises the risks of a disorderly devaluation of the Egyptian pound.

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