New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Poland Freight Transport Report Q3 2013"

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 06/24/2013 --Recovery Will Take Its Time

Since our last quarterly report, we have become a little gloomier about Poland's immediate economic outlook. The main reason for this is that private consumption is still in the doldrums, weighed down by high unemployment. We have cut our GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 1.9% (down from 2.3%) and to 3.0% in 2014 (down from 3.7%). We believe a recovery is on the way, but it is slower and more drawn-out affair than we had hoped.

At present the focus is on weak domestic consumption. We also do not expect any significant stimulus to come from government spending as the Warsaw authorities seem committed to only gradually easing fiscal austerity measures. The Donald Tusk administration is eager to maintain a reputation for fiscal responsibility and not to put its access to EU cohesion funds at risk.

We also expect investment growth to be weak, reflecting the high base effects of the investment surge running up to the 2012 European football championship, and a general wariness over the eurozone crisis. We believe that net exports will be the one significant bright spot, however, and the driver of a slow recovery emerging from the second half of this year. The point to watch here is the close linkage between the Polish and the German economies. Polish exports to Germany are significant, and Germany, we believe, will lead the European recovery.

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The outlook for the country's freight transport modes is good under the circumstances. The country's major maritime ports will see positive growth in 2013. The port of Gdansk is seeing very sharp expansion, reflecting the rapid development of its capacity, as well as its good business links. The largest global container line, Maersk Line, is its customer, and the shipping company now offers the facility as a port of call on some of its direct Asia-Europe services, offering Poland's importers and exporters cheaper and quicker transport links to ports in China. Other freight modes will see 2013 volume growth in the 2-4% range.

Headline Industry Data

- 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 3.1%
- 2013 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 4.2%
- 2013 Port of Gdansk throughput is forecast to grow by 8.5%
- 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 1.7%
- 2013 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 2.7%
- 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast at 2.5%

Key Industry Trends:

Rail Cargo IPO Set For 2014

Polish railway operator Polskie Koleje Panstwowe (PKP) is aiming to launch an initial public offering (IPO) for its goods carrier PKP Cargo by early 2014. The company, which was expected to select advisers by February, is likely to raise an amount worth around EUR500mn (US$674mn) from the IPO. The company is willing to divest maximum possible shares, while it wishes to hold a majority stake of 50% plus one share, PKP's CEO Jakub Karnowski said.

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