Fast Market Research recommends "Thailand Freight Transport Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 06/25/2013 --The Thai economy grew very strongly in late 2012, and BMI sees the recovery continuing into 2013, although with somewhat less force. In Q412 GDP growth was a spectacular 18.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), bringing expansion for the year as a whole to an above-consensus 6.4%. The very strong Q412 number reflected base effects, as the economy had plummeted in Q411 due to disastrous nationwide floods.

Two other factors, which in our view are not sustainable in the long term, have helped raise the growth rate. The first of these is a programme of one-off tax rebates on vehicle sales, part of the government's First Car Buyer Programme, which helped boost vehicle production last year by an estimated 81% to 1.4mn units. The second is a policy of subsidising rice sales, by offering guaranteed prices to farmers. This has led to a massive build-up in rice stockpiles. BMI's view is that these policies will have to be ended or eased back on, and coupled with other factors, such as a growth slowdown in China in H212, the negative effects of an overvalued Thai baht, and other global headwinds, this will bring down GDP growth in 2013 to around 4%. We note, however, that so far the local economy is showing itself to be more resilient than we expected. The opening of peace talks with rebels in the south of the country is also a positive sign and, should an agreement be reached, could deliver a significant economic dividend.

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In 2013, freight sector activity will be broadly in line with the pace of GDP and foreign trade growth. We note, however, that according to our forecasts in 2013 GDP will grow by 4.0% while foreign trade will expand by a slightly higher 5.4%. Road and rail freight will be more greatly influenced by the domestic economy than ports and airports.

Headline Industry Data

- Gross tonnage at Laem Chabang, the country's largest port, set to rise by 6.5% to 46.146mn tonnes in 2013 (compared to the estimated 5.4% growth in 2012).
- At the Port of Bangkok, BMI now projects that tonnage growth will reach 4.1% in 2013 (down from 8.0% in 2012) to 19.412mn tonnes.
- We now expect the real value of foreign trade to grow 5.4% in 2013, with imports up by 6.4% and exports lower at 4.4%.
- 2013 air freight tonnage growth forecast at 4.4% and to average 4.2% a year to 2017.
- 2013 rail freight tonnage throughput growth forecast at 1.9% and to average 2.0% a year to 2016.
- Road freight tonnage expected to grow by 1.3% in 2013 to reach 411.449mn tonnes

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