New Market Report: Japan Oil & Gas Report Q3 2013
New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWire) -- 06/27/2013 --Japan's consumption of imported oil and natural gas has increased as a result of nuclear power generation losses in the wake of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Over the longer term, a reassessment of energy strategy means nuclear will play a less prominent role and, inevitably, gas will have to make up part of the shortfall. This suggests Japan will become a still bigger player in global liquefied natural gas purchasing. Furthermore, the country is likely to ramp up its investments in overseas oil and gas assets as well as devote more energy to finding resources back at home.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Japan's oil and gas sector are:
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- Japanese oil consumption is expected to decline slightly in 2013 to approximately 4.47mn barrels per day (b/d). However, we expect this trend to reverse back to growth beyond 2014. By 2016, the country is expected to be consuming 4.52mn b/d of oil, with demand predicted to remain relatively stable through to 2022, at which point we forecast that it will reach 4.55mn b/d.
- A Japanese consortium consisting of oil companies, oil refiners, engineering firms and state-run energy researcher Japan Oil, Gas & Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) in April 2012 announced a technological breakthrough in their research on the conversion of gas into synthetic fuels. Calling their research the Japan-GTL process, the consortium promises that the breakthrough will bring down the cost of gas to liquids (GTL) conversion.
- BMI gas consumption estimates remain elevated following the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami, as electricity generated from gas generates the least pollution. We estimate that gas demand hit 110.0bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012, and that this figure will rise to 111.4bcm in 2013. Through to 2015/2016, demand is expected to rise steadily towards 112.4bcm - largely in the form of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). By 2022, the country is expected to be consuming at least 113.7bcm of gas.
- Japanese Petroleum Exploration Co. (Japex) has proposed a new LNG receiving terminal to be located in the Port of Soma, Fukushima prefecture. The new terminal highlight's Japan's shift in preference away from Nuclear power and towards LNG, and we expect that the terminal will have a ready market in Northern Japan.
- Japan Petroleum was recently able to extract shale oil from a deposit in Akita prefecture, a first for Japan. However, deposits at the Ayukawa and neighbouring gas fields are estimated at just 5mn barrels (bbl), or approximately one day's worth of oil consumption for Japan, underscoring the country's negligible natural oil resources and its dependence on imports.
- Indicative of what it expects to be falling domestic demand for oil, Cosmo Oil will close its 140,000b/d Sakaide refinery by July 2013.
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